Report series:
IMR-PINRO 2022-6Published: 06.09.2022Updated: 17.10.2022 Approved by:
Research Director(s):
Geir Huse
Program leader(s):
Maria Fossheim
External:
Oleg Bulatov (VNIRO)
1 - Executive Summary
On 30 th March 2022 all Russian participation in ICES was temporally suspended. Although the announcement of the suspension stressed the role of ICES as a “multilateral science organization”, this suspension applied not only to research activities, but also to the ICES work providing fisheries advice for the sustainable management of fish stocks and ecosystems. As a result of the suspension, the ICES AFWG provided advice only for saithe, coastal cod north, coastal cod south, and golden redfish ( Sebastes norvegicus ). Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod, haddock and beaked redfish ( Sebastes mentella ) assessments have been conducted outside of ICES in a newly constituted Joint Russian-Norwegian Working Group on Arctic Fisheries (JRN-AFWG). Although this work has been conducted independently of ICES, the methodologies agreed at ICES benchmarks and agreed HCRs (Harvest Control Rules) have been followed in providing this advice.
Advice on fishing opportunities for NEA cod
The NEA cod stock is continuing to decline following a period of moderate recruitment. Following the agreed HCR, the advice is constrained by the interannual stability constraint criteria of 20% annual change in quota. Advice is that catches in 2023 should not exceed 566 784 tonnes. A further decline of catches from 2023 to 2024 and then a stabilization of stock and catch levels is projected.
Advice on fishing opportunities for NEA haddock
Advice is that catches in 2023 should not exceed 170 067 tonnes, down 5% from the advice for 2022. The haddock total stock biomass is declining as the relatively large 2016 yearclass is caught. Model estimates suggest a run of average to very weak yearclasses since 2016, and the stock is therefore expected to decline over the medium term.
Advice on fishing opportunities for beaked redfish (Sebastes mentella)
Several issues were identified in providing the advice on beaked redfish. First, insufficient age reading in the catches was impacting on the quality of the assessment. This was addressed by using the length data converted with a time-averaged age-length conversion. Secondly, the fishing selectivity has changed significantly since the reference points were last estimated, with the F 19+ (the F bar used in reporting and management) representing an increasing fraction of the catch. As a result, it was not possible to directly apply the previous target F 19+ . Instead, a status quo F approach was applied, in order to keep the overall fishing pressure roughly constant. Following this approach, catches in 2023 should be no more than 66 779 tonnes, and no more than 70 164 tonnes in 2024. The overall stock is in a healthy state, with biomasses continuing to rise.
2 - Introduction
This report presents the details of the stock assessments conducted for Northeast Arctic cod, haddock and beaked redfish ( Sebastes mentella ) in ICES subareas 1 and 2. Due to the temporary suspension of Russian scientists from ICES, this is a joint Russian-Norwegian advice and explicitly not an ICES advice. However, the assessment methodology has followed the standard ICES procedure, using the models approved at ICES benchmarks and the Harvest Control Rules which have been evaluated as precautionary by ICES.
The work presented here would typically form a part of the ICES Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG). In order to keep continuity with previous reports, and to minimize the chances of errors arising from renumbering given the tight deadline to prepare this report, the chapter numbers for each stock chapter are maintained from the last AFWG report (ICES 2021). This also allows for anyone with previous AFWG experience to locate information rapidly and easily. As a result, this report contains Chapter 1 (executive summary), Chapter 2 (this introduction), Chapter 3 (Northeast Arctic cod), Chapter 4 (Northeast Arctic haddock), and Chapter 6 (beaked redfish, S. mentella ).
The meeting was chaired by Daniel Howell, from IMR Norway, and was attended by Anatoly Chetyrkin, Anatoly Filin, Yuri Kovalev, Alexey Russkikh, Natalia Yaragina, and Dmitri Vasilyev from VNIRO, Russia, and Bjarte Bogstad, Johanna Fall, Jane Godiksen, Hannes Höffle, and Edda Johannesen from IMR, Norway. The meeting was conducted on-line in two sessions: 16 th – 20th June 2022 and 25 th -30 th August 2022.
3 - Northeast Arctic Cod (Subareas 1 and 2)
3.1 - Status of the fisheries
3.1.1 - Historical development of the fisheries (Table 3.1)
From a level of about 900 000 t in the mid-1970s, total catch declined steadily to around 300 000 t in 1983—1985 (Table 3.1). Catches increased to above 500 000 t in 1987 before dropping to 212 000 t in 1990, the lowest level recorded in the post-war period. The catches increased rapidly from 1991 onwards, stabilized around 750 000 t in 1994—1997 but decreased to about 414 000 t in 2000. From 2000—2009, the reported catches were between 400 000 and 520 000 t, in addition there were unreported catches (see below). Catches have been above the long-term average since 2011 and have decreased from a peak of 986 449 tonnes in 2014 to 693 000 tonnes in 2019-2020 before increasing to 767 000 tonnes in 2022. The fishery is conducted both with an international trawler fleet and with coastal vessels using traditional fishing gears. Quotas were introduced in 1978 for the trawler fleets and in 1989 for the coastal fleets. In addition to quotas, the fishery is regulated by a minimum catch size, a minimum mesh size in trawls and Danish seines, a maximum bycatch of undersized fish, closure of areas having high densities of juveniles and by seasonal and area restrictions.
The provisional catch of cod in Subarea 1 and divisions 2.a and 2.b for 2021 reported to the working group is 810 755 t (including both NEA cod and NCC catches).
Reported catch figures used for the assessment of Northeast Arctic cod:
The historical practice (considering catches between 62°N and 67°N for the whole year and catches between 67°N and 69°N for the second half of the year to be Norwegian coastal cod) has been used for estimating the Norwegian landings of Northeast Arctic cod up to and including 2011 (Table 3.2). The catches of coastal cod subtracted from total cod catches in Subarea 1 and divisions 2.a and 2.b for the period 1960—2021 are given in Table 3.2. For 2012–2021 the Norwegian catches have been analysed by an ECA-version designed for simultaneously providing estimates of catch numbers-at-age for each of the two stocks.
Coastal cod catches in 2021 for the southern and northern area combined were 42 044 tonnes using the current conversion factors between round and gutted weight, and this amount was as in previous years subtracted from the total cod catch north of 62° N to get the figure for NEA cod used in that assessment (Table 3.1 and 3.2). The figure for total coastal cod catch in 2021 using the revised conversion factors, as decided at WKBarFar 2021 and used in the coastal cod assessment was 42 044 tonnes (ICES AFWG 2022 Table 2.1a), which is 3.3 % below the value of 43 471 tonnes using the current conversion factors.
These values for coastal cod are now inconsistent with the coastal cod catches presented in ICES AFWG 2022 Chapter 2, as the coastal cod catch time series were revised at WKBarFar, but not the NEA cod time series. At WKBarFar, the proposal for revision of NEA cod catch data series was rejected, as Norwegian data for many years and age groups (especially ages 12+ in years prior to 2013) were changed considerably and the reason for this was not sufficiently explained. WKBarFar recommended that when the revision of the historical Norwegian catch data is ready it should be submitted to ICES for review, ideally by a review attached to the AFWG.
The catch by area is shown in Table 3.1, and further split into trawl and other gears in Table 3.3. The distribution of catches by areas and gears in 2021 was similar to 2020. The nominal landings by country are given in Table 3.4.
There is information on cod discards (see ICES AFWG 2021 section 0.4) but it was not included in the assessment because these data are fragmented and different estimates are in contradiction with each other. Moreover the level of discards is relatively small in the recent period and inclusion of these estimates in the assessment should not change our perception on NEA cod stock size.
In summer/autumn 2018, a Norwegian vessel caught 441 t of cod in the Jan Mayen EEZ, which is a part of ICES area 2a, mostly by long-line. Cod is known to occasionally occur in this area, but rarely in densities which are suitable for commercial fisheries. The cod caught in this area in 2018 was large (65-110 cm), and otolith readings and genetics both showed this cod to be a mix of Northeast Arctic and Icelandic cod. Norway did in 2019-2020 carry out an experimental long-line fishery during four different periods in each year in order to investigate further the occurrence of cod in this area in space and time as well as stock identity. The size distribution and genetic composition of the cod caught in this area in 2019-2021 was similar to that in 2018, although there was somewhat more smaller cod (< 65 cm) in 2020-2021 than in 2019. Most of the cod caught in April-May 2019 was spawning or spent, while most cod caught in March 2020 had not started spawning. Cod spawning in this area has not been observed prior to 2019. Total catches in 2019 amounted to 628 t, in 2020 to 522 t and in 2021 to 146 t. The 2018 catches in this area were partly counted against the Norwegian TAC for cod north of 62° N , while the 2019 and 2020 TAC for this area comes in addition to the Norwegian TAC for cod as agreed by JNRFC. There has been varying practice considering including those catches in the assessment, they were included in 2020 but the plan is to exclude them for all years in future assessments. Regulations for the fishery in this area for 2022 have not yet been decided upon.
3.1.3 - Unreported catches of Northeast Arctic cod (Table 3.1)
In the years 2002—2008 certain quantities of unreported catches (IUU catches) have been added to the reported landings. More details on this issue are given in the Working group reports for that period.
There are no reliable data on level of IUU catches outside the periods 1990—1994 and 2002—2008, but it is believed that their level was not substantial enough to influence on historical stock assessment.
According to reports from the Norwegian-Russian analysis group on estimation of total catches the total catches of cod since 2009 were very close to officially reported landings.
3.1.4 - TACs and advised catches for 2021 and 2022
The Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) agreed on a cod TAC of 885 600 t for 202 1 , and in addition 21 000 t Norwegian coastal cod. The total reported catch of 800 427 t in 2021 was 106 173 t below the agreed TAC. Since 2015 JNRFC has decided that Norway and Russia can transfer to next year or borrow from last year 10% of the cod country’s quota. That may lead to some deviation between agreed TAC and reported catch. As an extraordinary measure due to expected underfishing of the TAC in 2021, JNRFC decided that it should be possible to transfer 15% of the TAC between 2021 and 2022.
The advice for 2022 given by ACOM in 2021 was 708 480 t based on the agreed harvest control rule. The quota established by JNRFC for 2022 was set equal to the advice. In addition, the TAC for Norwegian Coastal Cod was set to the same value for 2022 as for 2021: 21 000 t.
3.2 - Status of research
3.2.1 - Fishing effort and CPUE (Table A1, Figure 3.4-3.5)
CPUE series of the Norwegian and Russian trawl fisheries are given in Table A1. The data reflect the total trawl effort (Figure 3.4), both for Norway and Russia. The Norwegian series is given as a total for all areas. Norwegian data for 2011–2021 are not necessarily compatible with data for 2007 and previous years. Norwegian CPUE declined from 2020 to 2021 and reached the lowest level in the 2011-2021 time series (Figure 3.5).
3.2.2 - Survey results - abundance and size at age (Tables 3.5, A2-A14)
Some survey results for 2021 were revised since AFWG 2021, for a summary of this, see section 3.2.3.
Joint Barents Sea winter survey (bottom trawl and acoustics) Acronyms: BS-NoRu-Q1 (BTr) and BS-NoRu-Q1 (Aco)
The survey was carried out as planned with good spatial coverage.
Before 2000 this survey was made without participation from Russian vessels, while in 2001—2005, 2008—2016 and 2018-2022 Russian vessels have covered important parts of the Russian zone. In 2006—2007 the survey was carried out only by Norwegian vessels. In 2007, 2016, 2021 and 2022 the Norwegian vessels were not allowed to cover the Russian EEZ. The method for adjustment for incomplete area coverage in 2007 is described in the 2007 report. The same method was used to adjust the 1997-1998 survey indices in the 2016 revision (Mehl et al. 2016). Table 3.5 shows areas covered in the time-series and the additional areas implied in the method used to adjust for missing coverage in the Russian Economic Zone. In 5 of the 8 adjusted years (including 2021) the adjustments were not based on area ratios, but the “index ratio by age” was used. This means that the index by age for the covered area was scaled by the observed ratio between total index and the index for the same area observed in the years prior to the survey. The adjustments for 2017 were based on average index rations by age for 2014–2016. Adjustments were also made in 2020-2021 using the average index ratios by age for 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, respectively.
Regarding the older part of this time-series it should be noted that the survey prior to 1993 covered a smaller area (Jakobsen et al. 1997), and the number of young cod (particularly 1- and 2-year old fish) was probably underestimated. Other changes in the survey methodology through time are described by Jakobsen et al. (1997), while the surveys for the years 2007—2012 and 2013—2018 are reported in Mehl et al. (2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017a). Note that the change from 35 to 22 mm mesh size in the codend in 1994 is not corrected for in the time-series. This mainly affects the age 1 indices.
With the recent expansion of the cod distribution it is likely that in recent years the coverage in the February survey (BS-NoRu-Q1 (BTr) and BS-NoRu-Q1 (Aco)) has been incomplete, in particular for the younger ages. This could cause a bias in the assessment, but the magnitude is unknown. The 2014–2022 surveys covered considerably larger areas than earlier winter surveys, and showed that most age groups of cod (particularly ages 1 and 2) were distributed far outside the standard survey area. The bottom trawl survey estimates including the extended area for 2014-2022 were used in the tuning data separately from the same index before 2014, as decided at WkBarFar 2021.
Lofoten acoustic survey on spawners Acronym: Lof-Aco-Q1
The estimated abundance indices from the Norwegian acoustic survey off Lofoten and Vesterålen (the main spawning area for this stock) in March/April are given in Table A4. A description of the survey, sampling effort and details of the estimation procedure can be found in Korsbrekke (1997). The 2022 survey results in biomass terms was 182 thousand tonnes, this is 21 % below the 2021 level and the lowest since 2006.
Russian autumn survey Acronym: RU-BTr-Q4
Abundance estimates from the Russian autumn survey (November-December) are given in Table A9 (acoustic estimates) and Table A10 (bottom trawl estimates). The entire bottom trawl time-series was in 2007 revised backwards to 1982 (Golovanov et al., 2007, WD3), using the same method as in the revision presented in 2006, which went back to 1994. The new swept area indices reflect Northeast Arctic cod stock dynamics more precisely compared to the previous one - catch per hour trawling. The Russian autumn survey in 2006 was carried out with reduced area coverage. Divisions 2a and 2b were adequately investigated in the survey in contrast to Subarea 1, where the survey covered approximately 40% of the long-term average area coverage. The Subarea 1 survey indices were calculated based on actual covered area (40 541 sq. miles). The 2007 AFWG decided to use the “final" year class indices without any correction because of satisfactory internal correspondence between year class abundances at age 2—9 years according to the 2006 survey and ones due to the previous surveys.
This survey was not conducted in 2016 , but was carried out in 2017, when 79% of the standard survey area was covered (Sokolov et al 2018, WD 11). The index shows a reliable internal consistence and it was decided to use it in the assessment. This survey was not carried out in 2018-2021 and will likely be discontinued.
Joint Ecosystem survey Acronym: Eco-NoRu-Q3 (Btr)
Swept area bottom trawl estimates from the joint Norwegian-Russian ecosystem survey in August-September for the period 2004–2021 are given in Table A14. This survey normally covers the entire distribution area of cod at that time of the year.
In 2014 this survey had an essential problem with area coverage in the north-west region because of difficult ice conditions. In the area covered by ice in 2014 a substantial part of population was distributed during 2013 survey. So, based on those observations AFWG decided in 2015 to exclude 2014 year from that tuning series in current assessment. In 2016 there was incomplete coverage in the international waters and close to the Murman coast. An adjustment for this incomplete coverage was made based on interpolation from adjacent areas (Kovalev et al 2017, WD 12). At this time of the year, usually a relatively small part of the cod stock is found in the area which was not covered in 2016. In 2017 and 2019 the coverage was close to complete, although the far northeastern part of the survey area (west of the north island of Novaya Zemlya) was not covered due to military restrictions. In 2018, a large area in the eastern part of the Barents Sea was not covered Thus it was decided not to include 2018 data from this survey in the assessment.
The coverage in 2020 was less synoptic than usual, as explained in Section 0.6. As the survey indices from the BESS 2020 showed an unexplainable large decline compared to the 2019 indices, it was considered to exclude 2020 indices from this survey, but it was decided to keep them in and re-evaluate next year whether they should still be included in the assessment. The 2021 coverage was good, although as in several previous years, most of the international waters in the Barents Sea was not covered. The mentioned re-evaluation has not been carried out.
The survey indices are calculated both the BioFox and StoX calculation methods, and as in earlier years, the Biofox series was used in the tuning. A research recommendation from WkBarFar was to unify these two methods for estimating indices from ecosystem survey. However, the benchmark decided to use weight at age from the StoX in calculations of weight at age used in the assessment.
Survey results - length and weight-at-age (Tables A5-A8, A11-A12, A15)
Length-at-age is shown in Table A5 for the Norwegian survey in the Barents Sea in winter, in Table A7 for the Lofoten survey and in Table A11 for the Russian survey in October-December. Weight-at-age is shown in Table A6 for the Norwegian survey in the Barents Sea in winter, in Table A8 for the Lofoten survey, Table A12 for the Russian survey in October-December and Table A15 for the BESS survey (calculated using StoX).
Length and weight at age in the Lofoten survey increased from 2021 to 2022 for age groups 5-6 and 8-11. The size at age in the BESS survey was about the same in 2021 as in 2020.
3.2.3 - Revision of 2021 survey results
Some errors in StoX software were found in summer 2021, affecting the 2021 winter survey results (bottom trawl and acoustic) for cod and haddock and thus a revised assessment was carried out in September 2021 for both stocks (as described in the AFWG 2021 report executive summary). Also an error in calculating the 12+ group for the bottom trawl survey for use in the tuning was corrected. After that some additional errors in StoX software have been found and corrected, final estimates for 2021 are in the survey report which is now published (Fall et al. 2022). In addition, the 2020 ecosystem survey indices and weight at age as well as the 2021 Lofoten survey indices and weight at age have been revised.
3.2.4 - Age reading
The joint Norwegian-Russian work on cod otolith reading has continued, with regular exchanges of otoliths and age readers (see ICES AFWG 2021 chapter 0.7). The results of fifteen years of annual comparative age readings are described in Yaragina et al. (2009). Zuykova et al. (2009) re-read old otoliths and found no significant difference in contemporary and historical age determination and subsequent length at age. However, age at first maturation in the historical material as determined by contemporary readers is younger than that determined by historical readers. Taking this difference into account would thus have effect on the spawning stock-recruitment relationship and thus on the biological reference points. The overall percentage agreement for the 2017–2018 exchange was 87.7% (WD 8, ICES 2020). The main reason for cod ageing discrepancies between Russian and Norwegian specialists remains the same, representing the latest summer growth zone, and different interpretations of the false zones. The general trend is that the Russian readers assign slightly lower ages than the Norwegian readers compared to the modal age for all age groups. This is opposite of what we have seen in previous readings, where the Russian readers has tended to be slightly overestimating the age compared to the Norwegian readers.
The trend with bias in NEA cod age determination registered for some years of the period 1992–2018 between experts of both countries is a solid argument to continue comparative cod age reading between PINRO and IMR to monitor the situation. The German participant has expressed an intention to join the age reading cooperation in future.
3.3 - Data available for use in assessment
Data for the period 1946–1983 are taken from the AFWG 2001 report (ICES CM 2001/ACFM:19) and were not revised at the WKBarFar benchmark in 2021.
3.3.1 - Catch-at-age (Table 3.6)
For 2021, age compositions from all areas were available from Norway, Russia, Spain and Germany.
There is still a concern about the biological sampling from parts of the Norwegian fishery that may be too low. Also the split between NEA cod and coastal cod may be affected by the sampling coverage.
3.3.2 - Survey indexes available for use in assessment (Table 3.13, A13)
The following survey data series were available:
Fleetcode
Name
Place
Season
Age
Years
Fleet 15*
Joint bottom trawl survey
Barents Sea
Feb-Mar
3–12+
1981–2013, 2014-2022
Fleet 16
Joint acoustic survey
Barents Sea+Lofoten
Feb-Mar
3–12+
1985–2022
Fleet 18
Russian bottom trawl surv.
Total area
Oct-Dec
3–12+
1982–2017
Fleet 007
Ecosystem surv.
Total area
Aug-Sep
3–12+
2004–2021
*Survey indices for Fleet 15 were divided by two series (before and after 2014) in model tuning as decided at WKBarFar 2021.
The tuning fleet file is shown in Table 3.13. Note that the joint acoustic survey (sum of Barents Sea and Lofoten acoustic survey indices) is given in Table A13.
Survey indices for Fleet 15 have been multiplied by a factor 100, while survey indices for Fleets 007, 16 and 18 have been multiplied by a factor 10. This is done to keep the dynamics of the surveys even for very low indices, because some models (e.g. XSA) adds 1.0 to the indices before the logarithm is taken.
For 2021, weight-at-age in the catch for areas 1, 2a and 2b was provided by Norway, Russia, Spain and Germany (Table 3.7). For ages up to and including 11, observations are used. Following the WKBarFar 2021 decision, weight at age in catch for the years 1983-present for ages 12-15+ are calculated by a cohort-based von Bertalanffy approach used to replace previous fixed values.
Stock weights
For ages 1—11 stock weights-at-age at the start of year y (Wa,y) for 1983—2022 are calculated combining, when available, weight at age from the Winter, Lofoten, Russian autumn and ecosystem surveys. The details are given in the Stock Annex. For ages 12-15+ a similar approach as for weight at age in the catch was used.
3.3.4 - Natural mortality including cannibalism (Table 3.12, Table 3.17)
A natural mortality (M) of 0.2 + cannibalism was used. Cannibalism is assumed to only affect natural mortality of ages 3-6.
2021 data are available and 2020 data have been updated.
The method used for calculation of the prey consumption by cod described by Bogstad and Mehl (1997) is used to calculate the consumption of cod by cod for use in cod stock assessment. The consumption is calculated based on cod stomach content data taken from the joint PINRO-IMR stomach content database (methods described in Mehl and Yaragina 1992). On average about 9000 cod stomachs from the Barents Sea have been analysed annually in the period 1984—2021.
These data are used to calculate the per capita consumption of cod by cod for each half-year (by prey age groups 0—6 and predator age groups 1–11+). It was assumed that the mature part of the cod stock is found outside the Barents Sea for three months during the first half of the year. Thus, consumption by cod in the spawning period was omitted from the calculations.
An iterative procedure was applied to include the per capita consumption data in the SAM run. It is described in detail in Stock Annex.
For the cod assessment data from annual sampling of cod stomachs has been used for estimating cannibalism, since the 1995 assessment. The argument has been raised that the uncertainty in such calculations are so large that they introduce too much noise in the assessment. A rather comprehensive analysis of the usefulness of this was presented in Appendix 1 in the 2004 AFWG report. The conclusion was that it improves the assessment.
The data on cod cannibalism for the historical period (1946—1983) was included in assessment during the benchmark to make the time-series consistent (ICES 2015a, WKARCT 2015). These estimates were based on hindcasted values of NEA cod natural mortality at ages 3—5 using PINRO data base on food composition from cod stomach for the historical period (Yaragina et al. 2018).
3.3.5 - Maturity-at-age (Tables 3.10-3.11)
Historical (pre–1982) Norwegian and Russian time-series on maturity ogives were reconstructed by the 2001 AFWG meeting (ICES CM 2001/ACFM:19). The Norwegian maturity ogives were constructed using the Gulland method for individual cohorts, based on information on age at first spawning from otoliths. For the time period 1946—1958 only the Norwegian data were available. The Russian proportions mature-at-age, based on visual examinations of gonads, were available from 1959.
Since 1982 Russian and Norwegian survey data have been used (Table 3.10). For the years 1985—2022, Norwegian maturity-at-age ogives have been obtained by combining the Barents Sea winter survey and the Lofoten survey. Russian maturity ogives from the autumn survey as well as from commercial fishery for November-February are available from 1984 until present. The Norwegian maturity ogives tend to give a higher percent mature-at-age compared to the Russian ogives, which is consistent with the generally higher growth rates observed in cod sampled by the Norwegian surveys. The percent mature-at-age for the Russian and Norwegian surveys have been arithmetically averaged for all years, except 1982—1983 when only Norwegian observations were used and 1984 when only Russian observations were used.
Russian data for the autumn survey for 2018 and later years were not available as the survey was not conducted. In WD1 5 , 2019, updated correction factors to allow for this when calculating the combined maturity-at-age in 2019 were calculated, based on historical differences between Norwegian and Russian data. These correction factors were then applied to the Norwegian data for 2020-2022.
The approach used for calculating maturity at age is the same as previously used and consistent with the approach used to estimate the weight-at-age in the stock, except that no data from the BESS survey are used. However, since survey data, both abundance indices and proportion mature, have been revised, the entire time series of ogives back to 1994 was revised at the benchmark. The proportions of mature cod for age 13–15 are set to 1 for the period 1984–present.
Maturity-at-age for cod has been variable the last five years, particularly for ages 6–9. According to the combined data, maturity at age decreased in 2015–2016, then increased, but decreased again from 2019 to 2022 for most age groups (Table 3.11).
3.4 - Assessment using SAM
3.4.1 - SAM settings (Table 3.14)
The SAM model settings optimised by WKBarFar are shown in Table 3.14.
3.4.2 - SAM diagnostics (Figure 3.1 and 3.2 a-c)
Residuals for the SAM run are shown in Figure 3.2a, while retrospective plots of F, SSB and recruitment are shown in Figure 3.2b. Figure 3.2c shows the catchability by survey and age group and Figure 3.2d compares observed and modelled catches in tonnes.
The retrospective pattern is generally very good (Figure 3.2b), with values of Mohn’s rho of 0-2% both for SSB, R and F.
The observed catch in tonnes in 2021 is higher than modelled, and just inside the confidence interval.
Summaries of landings, fishing mortality, stock biomass, spawning stock biomass and recruitment since 1946 are given in Table 3.18 and Figure 3.1.
The fishing mortalities and population numbers are given in Tables 3.15 and 3.16.
The estimated F5-10 in 2021 is 0.48, which is above Fpa (Table 3.18). Fishing mortality has been increasing slowly in recent years. The spawning stock biomass in 2022 is estimated to be 833 kt (Table 3.20), which is high but much lower than the peak in 2013 (2,271 kt). One should bear in mind that in the early part of the time-series (before the 1980s) the fraction at age of mature fish was considerably lower.
Total stock biomass in 2022 is estimated to 1,98 5 kt, which is close to the long-term mean and well below the highest level observed after 1955 (3,766 kt in 2013).
It is noted that the exploitation pattern is still dome-shaped with a marked decrease in selectivity above age 12, although the dome-shape is not as strong than in assessments made before the 2021 benchmark.
M values (M = 0.2+cannibalism mortality) are given in Table 3.17. For ages 3—5 the M matrix in 1946—1983 also includes M2 since the benchmark meeting in 2015 (WKARCT 2015).
3.5 - Reference points and harvest control rules
The current reference points for Northeast Arctic cod were estimated by SGBRP (ICES CM 2003/ACFM:11) and adopted by ACFM at the May 2003 meeting.
At the 46th session of JRNFC a new version of the management rule was adopted (see section 3.7.3). The TAC advice for 2022 is based on the agreed harvest control rule.
3.5.1 - Biomass reference points
The values adopted by ACFM in 2003 are Blim = 220 000 t, Bpa = 460 000 t. (ICES CM 2003/ACFM:11).
3.5.2 - Fishing mortality reference points
The values adopted by ACFM in 2003 are Flim = 0.74 and Fpa = 0.40. (ICES CM 2003/ACFM:11). The Fmsy for NEA cod was estimated by WKBaRFar 2021 to be in the range 0.40 - 0.60.
3.5.3 - Harvest control rule
The history of how the harvest control rule has developed is given in the 2017 AFWG report. JNRFC in 2015 asked ICES to explore the consequences of 10 different harvest control rules. This was done by WKNEAMP (ICES 2015b, 2016). JNRFC in 2016 adopted one of the rules explored by WKNEAMP (Rule 6 in that report).
The current rule reads as follows:
The TAC is calculated as the average catch predicted for the coming 3 years using the target level of exploitation (Ftr).
The target level of exploitation is calculated according to the spawning stock biomass (SSB) in the first year of the forecast as follows:
If the spawning stock biomass in the present year, the previous year and each of the three years of prediction is above Bpa, the TAC should not be changed by more than +/- 20% compared with the previous year’s TAC. In this case, Ftr should however not be below 0.30.
The input data to the short-term prediction with management option table (2022—2025) are given in Table 3.19a. For 2022 stock weights and maturity were calculated from surveys as described in Sections 3.3.2 and 3.3.4.
Catch weights in 2022 onwards and stock weights in 2023 and onwards for age 3–11 are predicted by the method described by Brander (2002), where the latest observation of weights by cohort are used together with average annual increments to predict the weight of the cohort the following year. The method is given by the equation
W(a+1,y+1)=W(a,y) + Incr(a), where Incr(a) is a “medium term” average of Incr(a,y)= W(a+1,y+1)-W(a,y)
This method was introduced in the cod prediction in the 2003 working group. Since 2005 working group an average of the 3 most recent values of annual increments have been used for predicting stock weights. For catch weights the last 5-year period for averaging the increments is used (changed from 10-year period at the benchmark).
The maturity ogive for the years 2023—2025 was predicted by using the 2020-2022 average. The exploitation pattern in 2022 and later years was set equal to the previous 5 years according to the benchmark decision and as described at Stock Annex.
The stock number-at-age in 2022 was taken from the final SAM run (Table 3.16) for ages 4 and older. The recruitment at age 3 in the years 2022—2025 was estimated as described in section 3.7.2. Figure 3. 3 shows the development in natural mortality due to cannibalism for cod (prey) age groups 1-3 together with the abundance of capelin in the period 1984—2021. There was no clear trend in natural mortality, and the average M values for the last 3 years are used to predict natural mortality of age groups 3—6 for years 2022—2025 (based on benchmark decision, WKARCT 2015 and unchanged at WKBaRFar 2021).
The assessment shows a slightly increasing F from 2015 to 2021. In accordance with the benchmark decision (WKARCT 2015, not reviewed at WKBarFar 2021) and with support from AFWG-2019 WD 11 (Kovalev and Chetyrkin, 2019), the last year’s assessment F in terminal year 2021 (status quo) is used for F in the intermediate year (2022). Table 3.19 shows input data to the predictions. The results of prediction show that the catch in 2022 predicted using Fsq is about 68 kt less than the agreed TAC. As the coastal cod catch in recent years has been about 20 kt higher than the TAC of 21 kt, this means that if the total TAC for Northeast arctic cod and Coastal cod will be taken, the predicted catch using Fsq will be about 48 kt below the TAC. Reported catches so far in 2022 indicate that the catches will be somewhat above the TAC of 708 480 tonnes, as the TAC in 2021 was underfished and a considerable amount (105 584 tonnes) was transferred to 2022.
3.6.2 - Recruitment prediction (Table 3.19b-d )
At the 2008 AFWG meeting it was decided to use a hybrid model, which is a weighted arithmetic mean of different recruitment models. It was agreed to use the same approach this year. The input data for those models are the following time-series; ice coverage, intensity of interaction between the arctic and boreal oceanic systems on the shelf of the Barents Sea, temperature and oxygen saturation at the Kola section. Input data to he prediction are presented in Tables 3.19b-c and prognosis from all the models, including the hybrid is presented in Table 3.19d. Since 2014 the hybrid model is based on objective weighting of different sub-models and includes the RCT3 model (see AFWG report 2021 section 1.4 for details). The numbers-at-age 3 calculated by the hybrid method were: 476 million for the 2019 year class, 566 million for the 2020 year class, 383 million for the 2021 year class and 315 million for the 2022 year class (Table 3.19d).
Although age 3 indices from the winter bottom trawl and acoustic surveys are now also included in the SAM tuning, it was decided at the benchmark to continue using in the predictions recruitment estimates at age 3 in the assessment year ( intermediate year in prediction) from the hybrid model. The difference between the SAM estimate and the hybrid model estimate of age 3 in 2022 was large (189 vs. 476 million individuals).
The values used for the 2019 and 2020 year classes in the prediction are higher than the very low survey indices for those year classes at age 1 and 2 indicate.
3.6.3 - Prediction results (Tables 3.20-3.21)
The catch corresponding to Fsq in 2022 is 641 kt (Table 3.20). The resulting SSB in 2023 is 751 kt, which is 10 % lower than the SSB in 2022. Table 3.20 shows the short-term consequences over a range of F-values in 2023. The detailed outputs corresponding to Fsq in 2022 and the F corresponding to the HCR and Fpa in 2023 is given in Table 3.21. Summarised results are shown in the text table below.
Since SSB in 2022 is between Bpa =460 000 t and 2 × Bpa = 920 000 t, F = 0.40 is used in the 3-year prediction, giving catches of 487 049, 476 906 and 468 560 tonnes in 2023, 2024 and 2025, respectively. The average of this is 477 505 tonnes. According to the HCR the maximum year-to-year decrease in TAC is limited by 20 % which corresponds to a TAC of 566 784 tonnes for 2023. The resulted TAC for 2023 in accordance with the management plan is shown in the table below.
Cod in subareas 1 and 2. Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes.
Basis
Total catch (2023)
Ftotal (2023)
SSB(2024)
% SSB change *
% TAC change **
% Advice change ***
ICES advice basis
Management plan^
566 784
0.48
668 851
-11
-20
-20
Other options
MSY approach: FMSY
487 049
0.40
731 342
-3
-31
-31
F = 0
0
0
1 134 101
51
-100
-100
F = F2021
564 475
0.4810
670 645
-11
-20
-20
Fpa
487 049
0.40
731 342
-3
-31
-31
Flim
775 883
0.74
510 976
-32
10
10
Weights in tonnes.
^ 20 % decrease from TAC 2022
* SSB 2024 relative to SSB 2023.
** Catch 2023 relative to TAC 2022
*** Advice for 2023 relative to advice for 2022
This catch forecast covers all catches. It is then implied that all types of catches are to be counted against this TAC. It also means that if any overfishing is expected to take place, the above calculated TAC should be reduced by the expected amount of overfishing.
3.6.4 - Medium-term predictions
The medium-term prediction indicates that if the HCR is followed, the stock size should stop declining and stabilize from 2024 onwards, around the following values: total stock 1.7 million tonnes and SSB 700 000 tonnes, with corresponding catch levels around 450 000 tonnes.
3.7 - Comparison with last year’s assessment and prediction
3.7.1 - Comparison to 2021 assessment (Figure 3.7)
The text tables below compare this year’s estimates with the final 2021 AFWG estimates for numbers at age (millions), total biomass, spawning biomass (thousand tonnes) in 2021, as well as reference F for the year 2020.
In the current assessment, the number at ages 10-14 was adjusted upwards slightly compared to the 2021 AFWG assessment. For younger ages, the changes went in both directions, but mostly there was a decrease from 2021 assessment, with ages 6 and 7 being the main exception. On the other hand, the plus group in 2021 was adjusted downwards. TSB, SSB and F were very close to the previous assessment.
3.7.2 - Comparison to prediction
The change in the advice is large compared to last year. The advice for 2023 is 566 784 tonnes, while the advice for 2022 given by ICES was 708 480 tonnes.
The assessed stock in 2022 in comparison with the assessment in 2021 was very similar. The main tendency for stock decrease in coming years was similar. The average catch predicted for the coming 3 years, using the mentioned target level of exploitation (Ftr) in the HCR resulted in TAC advice equal to 566 784 t. This value corresponds to the - 20 % limit on year-to-year TAC change stated in the HCR, and is higher than the value without applying such a constraint (477 505 t).
3.8 - Concerns with the assessment
The WG realizes that imprecise input data, in particular the catch-at-age matrix, and discontinuation of some surveys as well as incomplete spatial coverage and reduced synopticity in surveys could be a main obstacle to producing precise stock assessments, regardless of which model is used.
3.9 - Additional assessment methods
All models use the same tuning data.
3.9.1 - TISVPA (Tables 3.22-3.24, Figure 3.6a-c )
This year the TISVPA model was applied to NEA cod with the same settings as last year and using the same data as SAM except that natural mortality values from cannibalism were taken from the SAM runs. During WG the results of exploratory runs using the TISVPA model were discussed. The residuals of the model approximation of catch-at-age and “fleets” data are presented in Figure 3.6a. Likelihood profiles for different data source are presented in Figure 3.6b. Retrospective run results are shown in Figure 3.6c. The results (Tables 3.22-3.24) generally support the results of the SAM model, with a similar SSB estimate but a lower TSB estimate in 2022 as well as a higher F estimate in 2021.
3.9.2 - Model comparisons ( Figures 3.2a, 3.6a, 3.7)
Figure 3.7 compares the results of SAM and TISVPA, showing F, SSB, TSB and recruitment. F in 2021 and SSB in 2022 is very similar for all models, while TSB and recruitment in recent years is lower in TISVPA than in SAM. Both models demonstrates a stable retrospective pattern (F igures 3.2a, 3.6c).
3.10 - New and revised data sources
This section describes some data sources, which could be revised or included in the assessment in the future.
3.10.1 - Consistency between NEA cod and coastal cod catch data (Table 3.2)
Consistency between the catch data used for NEA cod and coastal cod should be ensured. The revised catch figures used in the coastal cod assessment do not correspond to the difference between the total cod catch and the catch used in the NEA cod assessment (Table 3.2). These discrepancies will be adjusted when the NEA cod catch series are revised (section 3.2.2).
3.10.2 - Discard and bycatch data
Work on updating discard and bycatch data series is ongoing. Revised bycatch estimates in numbers for the period 2005-2020 are described in AFWG-2021 Section 0.6. At WKARCT in 2015 it was, however, decided not to include those data in the catch-at-age matrix.
The bycatch mainly consists of age 1 and 2 fish, but the bycatch is generally small compared to other reported sources of mortality: catches, discards and the number of cod eaten by cod. From 1992 onwards, bycatches of age 3 and older fish are negligible, because use of sorting grids was made mandatory. However, in 1985, bycatches of age 5 and 6 cod were about one third of the reported catches for those age groups. The year class for which the bycatches were highest, was the 1983 year class (total bycatch of age 2 and older fish of about 60 million, compared to a stock estimate of about 1300 million at age 3.
3.11 - References
Brander, K. 2002. Predicting weight at age. Internal ICES note to assessment working groups. 2003. Software implementation of process models. Working Document No. 2 to the Arctic Fisheries Working Group, San Sebastian, Spain, 23 April- 2 May 2003.
Fall, J., Wenneck, T. de Lange, Bogstad, B., Fuglebakk, E., Godiksen, J., Korsbrekke, K., Seim, S. E., Skage, M. L., Staby, A., Tranang, C. Aa., Windsland, K., Russkikh, A. A., and Kharlin, S. 2022. Fish investigations in the Barents Sea winter 2021. IMR-PINRO Joint Report Series 1-2022, 100 pp.
Golovanov S.E., Sokolov A.M., and Yaragina, N.A. 2007. Revised indices of the Northeast Arctic cod abundance according to the 1982-2006 data from Russian trawl-acoustic survey (TAS). Working Document #3 for AFWG 2007.
ICES 2001. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group. Bergen, Norway, 24 April – 3 May 2001. ICES CM 2001/ACFM:19. 380 pp.
ICES 2003. Study Group on Biological Reference Points for Northeast Arctic Cod. Svanhovd, Norway 13-17 January 2003. ICES CM 2003/ACFM:11.
ICES 2015a. Report of the first Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin ( WKNEAMP-1) , , . ICES CM 2015/ACOM:60, 27 pp.
ICES. 2015b. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Arctic Stocks (WKARCT), 26-30 January 2015, ICES Headquarters, Denmark. ICES CM 2015\ACOM:31. 126 pp.
ICES 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2) , 25-28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47, 76 pp.
ICES. 2021. Benchmark Workshop for Barents Sea and Faroese Stocks (WKBARFAR 2021).
Jakobsen, T., Korsbrekke, K., Mehl, S., and Nakken, O. 1997. Norwegian combined acoustic and bottom trawl surveys for demersal fish in the Barents Sea during winter. ICES CM 1997/Y:17.
Korsbrekke, K. 1997. Norwegian acoustic survey of Northeast Arctic cod on the spawning grounds off Lofoten. ICES C.M 1997/Y:18.
Kovalev, Y., and Chetyrkin, A. 2019. What does NEA cod want for prediction - Fsq or TAC constrain? Working Document No. 11 to the Arctic Fisheries Working Group. ICES. 2019. Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG). ICES Scientific Reports. 1:30. 934 pp.
Mehl, S., Aglen, A., Alexandrov, D.I., Bogstad, B., Dingsør, G.E., Gjøsæter, H., Johannesen, E., Korsbrekke, K., Murashko, P.A., Prozorkevich, D.V., Smirnov, O., Staby, A., and Wenneck, T. de Lange, 2013. Fish investigations in the Barents Sea winter 2007-2012. IMR-Pinro Joint Report Series 1-2013, 97 pp.
Mehl, S., Aglen, A., Bogstad, B., Dingsør, G.E., Gjøsæter, H., Godiksen, J., Johannesen, E., Korsbrekke, K., Staby, A., Wenneck, T. de Lange, Wienerroither, R., Murashko, P. A., and Russkikh, A. 2014. Fish investigations in the Barents Sea winter 2013-2014. IMR-PINRO Joint Report Series 2-2014, 73 pp.
Mehl, S. Aglen, A., Amelkin, A., Dingsør, G.E., Gjøsæter, H., Godiksen, Staby, A., Wenneck, T. de Lange, and Wienerroither, R. 2015. Fish investigations in the Barents Sea, winter 2015. IMR-PINRO report series 2-2015. 61 pp.
Mehl, S., Aglen, A., Bogstad, B., Dingsør, G.E., Korsbrekke, K., Olsen, E., Staby, A., Wenneck, T. de Lange, Wienerroither, R., Amelkin, A. V., and Russkikh, A. A. 2016. Fish investigations in the Barents Sea winter 2016. IMR-PINRO Joint Report Series 4-2016, 78 pp.
Mehl, S., Aglen, A., Bogstad, B., Staby, A., Wenneck, T. de Lange, and Wienerroither, R., 2017. Fish investigations in the Barents Sea winter 2017. IMR-PINRO Joint Report Series 2-2017, 87 pp.
Sokolov A., Russkikh A., Kharlin S., Kovalev Yu. A., and Yaragina N.A. 2018. Results of the Russian trawl-acoustic survey on cod and haddock in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters in October-December 2017. Working Document no. 11. ICES Arctic Fisheries Working Group, ICES CM 2018/ACOM:06.
Thygesen, U. H., Albertsen, C. M., Berg, C. W., Kristensen, K., and Nielsen, A. 2017. Validation of ecological state space models using the Laplace approximation Environmental and Ecological Statistics 24 (2): 317-339.
WD 15. 2019. Updated mean ratios between the combined and Norwegian data on weight at age and maturity at age in Northeast Arctic cod. Working document no 15, AFWG 2019.
Yaragina N.A. Nedreaas K.H., Koloskova V., Mjanger H., Senneset H., Zuykova N. and Ǻgotnes P. 2009. Fifteen years of annual Norwegian-Russian cod comparative age readings. Marine Biology Research 5(1): 54-65.
Zuykova N.V., Koloskova V.P., Mjanger H., Nedreaas K.H., Senneset H., Yaragina N.A., Ågotnes P. and Aanes S. 2009. Age determination of Northeast Arctic cod otoliths through 50 years of history. Marine Biology Research 5(1): 66-74.
Zuykova N.V., Mjanger H. et al. 2020. Report on the meeting between Norwegian and Russian age reading specialists at Polar Branch of FSBSI “VNIRO” Murmansk, 20-24 May 2019. Working document no 8 in: Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 15-22 April 2020. ICES CM 2015/ACOM:05. 639 pp.
3.12 - Tables and figures
Year
Subarea 1
Division 2.a
Division 2.b
Unreported catches
Total catch
1961
409 694
153 019
220 508
783 221
1962
548 621
139 848
220 797
909 266
1963
547 469
117 100
111 768
776 337
1964
206 883
104 698
126 114
437 695
1965
241 489
100 011
103 430
444 983
1966
292 253
134 805
56 653
483 711
1967
322 798
128 747
121 060
572 605
1968
642 452
162 472
269 254
1 074 084
1969
679 373
255 599
262 254
1 197 226
1970
603 855
243 835
85 556
933 246
1971
312 505
319 623
56 920
689 048
1972
197 015
335 257
32 982
565 254
1973
492 716
211 762
88 207
792 685
1974
723 489
124 214
254 730
1 102 433
1975
561 701
120 276
147 400
829 377
1976
526 685
237 245
103 533
867 463
1977
538 231
257 073
109 997
905 301
1978
418 265
263 157
17 293
698 715
1979
195 166
235 449
9 923
440 538
1980
168 671
199 313
12 450
380 434
1981
137 033
245 167
16 837
399 037
1982
96 576
236 125
31 029
363 730
1983
64 803
200 279
24 910
289 992
1984
54 317
197 573
25 761
277 651
1985
112 605
173 559
21 756
307 920
1986
157 631
202 688
69 794
430 113
1987
146 106
245 387
131 578
523 071
1988
166 649
209 930
58 360
434 939
1989
164 512
149 360
18 609
332 481
1990
62 272
99 465
25 263
25 000
212 000
1991
70 970
156 966
41 222
50 000
319 158
1992
124 219
172 532
86 483
130 000
513 234
1993
195 771
269 383
66 457
50 000
581 611
1994
353 425
306 417
86 244
25 000
771 086
1995
251 448
317 585
170 966
739 999
1996
278 364
297 237
156 627
732 228
1997
273 376
326 689
162 338
762 403
1998
250 815
257 398
84 411
592 624
1999
159 021
216 898
108 991
484 910
2000
137 197
204 167
73 506
414 870
2001
142 628
185 890
97 953
426 471
2002
184 789
189 013
71 242
90 000
535 045
2003
163 109
222 052
51 829
115 000
551 990
2004
177 888
219 261
92 296
117 000
606 445
2005
159 573
194 644
121 059
166 000
641 276
2006
159 851
204 603
104 743
67 100
537 642
2007
152 522
195 383
97 891
41 087
486 883
2008
144 905
203 244
101 022
15 000
464 171
2009
161 602
207 205
154 623
523 431
2010
183 988
271 337
154 657
609 983
2011
198 333
328 598
192 898
719 829
2012
247 938
331087
148 638
727 663
2013
360 673
421678
183 858
966 209
2014
320 347
468 934
197 168
986 449
2015
272405
375328
216651
864384
2016
321347
351468
176607
849422
2017
309902
360477
197898
868276
201 8
249397
321548
207681
778627
201 9
234985
318539
139084
692609
2020
234029
298707
160166
692903
20211
281198
268942
217144
767284
Data provided by Working Group members
1 Provisional figure
Table 3.1. Northeast Arctic COD. Total catch (t) by fishing areas and unreported catch.
Year
Norwegian catches of cod removed from the NEACcod-assessment
v1960–70
38.6
1971–79
no data
1980
40
1981
49
1982
42
1983
38
1984
33
1985
28
1986
26
1987
31
1988
22
1989
17
1990
24
1991
25
1992
35
1993
44
1994
48
1995
39
1996
32
1997
36
1998
29
1999
23
2000
19
2001
14
2002
20
2003
19
2004
14
2005
13
2006
15
2007
13
2008
13
2009
15
2010
13.5
2011
18.8
2012
35.5
2013
30.1
2014
33.6
2015
35.8
2016
54.9
2017
51.0
2018
36.3
2019
40.1
2020
45.3
2021
42.0
Table 3.2. Catches of Norwegian Coastal Cod in subareas 1 and 2, 10 3 tonnes, which are removed from the NEA cod assessment.
Year
Subarea 1
Division 2.a
Division 2.b
Trawl
Others
Trawl
Others
Trawl
Others
1967
238
84.8
38.7
90
121.1
-
1968
588.1
54.4
44.2
118.3
269.2
-
1969
633.5
45.9
119.7
135.9
262.3
-
1970
524.5
79.4
90.5
153.3
85.6
-
1971
253.1
59.4
74.5
245.1
56.9
-
1972
158.1
38.9
49.9
285.4
33
-
1973
459
33.7
39.4
172.4
88.2
-
1974
677
46.5
41
83.2
254.7
-
1975
526.3
35.4
33.7
86.6
147.4
-
1976
466.5
60.2
112.3
124.9
103.5
-
1977
471.5
66.7
100.9
156.2
110
-
1978
360.4
57.9
117
146.2
17.3
-
1979
161.5
33.7
114.9
120.5
8.1
-
1980
133.3
35.4
83.7
115.6
12.5
-
1981
91.5
45.1
77.2
167.9
17.2
-
1982
44.8
51.8
65.1
171
21
-
1983
36.6
28.2
56.6
143.7
24.9
-
1984
24.5
29.8
46.9
150.7
25.6
-
1985
72.4
40.2
60.7
112.8
21.5
-
1986
109.5
48.1
116.3
86.4
69.8
-
1987
126.3
19.8
167.9
77.5
129.9
1.7
1988
149.1
17.6
122
88
58.2
0.2
1989
144.4
19.5
68.9
81.2
19.1
0.1
1990
51.4
10.9
47.4
52.1
24.5
0.8
1991
58.9
12.1
73
84
40
1.2
1992
103.7
20.5
79.7
92.8
85.6
0.9
1993
165.1
30.7
155.5
113.9
66.3
0.2
1994
312.1
41.3
165.8
140.6
84.3
1.9
1995
218.1
33.3
174.3
143.3
160.3
10.7
1996
248.9
32.7
137.1
159
147.7
6.8
1997
235.6
37.7
150.5
176.2
154.7
7.6
1998
219.8
31
127
130.4
82.7
1.7
1999
133.3
25.7
101.9
115
107.2
1.8
2000
111.7
25.5
105.4
98.8
72.2
1.3
2001
119.1
23.5
83.1
102.8
95.4
2.5
2002
147.4
37.4
83.4
105.6
69.9
1.3
2003
146
17.1
107.8
114.2
50.1
1.8
2004
154.4
23.5
100.3
118.9
88.8
3.5
2005
132.4
27.2
87
107.7
115.4
5.6
2006
141.8
18.1
91.2
113.4
100.1
4.6
2007
129.6
22.9
84.8
110.6
91.6
6.3
2008
123.8
21.1
94.8
108.4
95.3
5.7
2009
130.1
31.5
102
105.2
142.1
11.4
2010
151.1
32.9
130
141.4
149.2
5.4
2011
158.1
38.4
163.5
167
181
11.9
2012
212.1
35.9
172.7
158.4
133.8
14.9
2013
308.5
52.2
216.9
204.7
159.7
24.1
2014
268.8
51.5
246.8
222.1
177.9
19.3
2015
224.3
48.1
192.2
183.2
197.7
19.0
2016
285.5
35.8
181.7
169.8
156.3
20.3
2017
265.4
44.5
189.5
171.0
180.0
17.9
201 8
204.7
44.7
156.7
164.9
192.0
15.6
201 9
199.4
35.6
177.8
140.7
128.9
10.1
2020
199.4
34.6
157.2
141.5
153.5
6.7
2021 1
220.8
60.4
120.2
148.7
202.1
15.1
Data provided by Working Group members
1 Provisional figures
Table 3.3. Northeast Arctic COD. Total nominal catch ('000 t) by trawl and other gear for each
Table 3.4. Northeast Arctic COD. Nominal catch(t) by countries. (Subarea 1 and divisions 2a and 2b combined, data provided by Working group members
Year
Faroe Islands
France
German Dem. Rep.
Fed. Rep. Germany
Norway
Poland
United Kingdom
Russia 2
Others
Total all countries
1961
3 934
13 755
3 921
8 129
268 377
-
158 113
325 780
1 212
783 221
1962
3 109
20 482
1 532
6 503
225 615
-
175 020
476 760
245
909 266
1963
-
18 318
129
4 223
205 056
108
129 779
417 964
-
775 577
1964
-
8 634
297
3 202
149 878
-
94 549
180 550
585
437 695
1965
-
526
91
3 670
197 085
-
89 962
152 780
816
444 930
1966
-
2 967
228
4 284
203 792
-
103 012
169 300
121
483 704
1967
-
664
45
3 632
218 910
-
87 008
262 340
6
572 605
1968
-
-
225
1 073
255 611
-
140 387
676 758
-
1 074 084
1969
29 374
-
5 907
5 543
305 241
7 856
231 066
612 215
133
1 197 226
1970
26 265
44 245
12 413
9 451
377 606
5 153
181481
276 632
-
933 246
1971
5 877
34 772
4 998
9 726
407 044
1 512
80 102
144 802
215
689 048
1972
1 393
8 915
1 300
3405
394 181
892
58 382
96 653
166
565 287
1973
1 916
17 028
4 684
16 751
285 184
843
78 808
387 196
276
792 686
1974
5 717
46 028
4 860
78 507
287 276
9 898
90 894
540 801
38 453
1 102 434
1975
11 309
28 734
9 981
30 037
277 099
7435
101 843
343 580
19 368
829 377
1976
11 511
20 941
8 946
24 369
344 502
6 986
89 061
343 057
18 090
867 463
1977
9 167
15 414
3 463
12 763
388 982
1 084
86 781
369 876
17 771
905 301
1978
9 092
9 394
3 029
5 434
363 088
566
35 449
267 138
5 525
698 715
1979
6 320
3 046
547
2 513
294 821
15
17 991
105 846
9 439
440 538
1980
9 981
1 705
233
1 921
232 242
3
10 366
115 194
8 789
380 434
Spain
1981
12 825
3 106
298
2 228
277 818
14 500
5 262
83 000
-
399 037
1982
11 998
761
302
1 717
287 525
14 515
6 601
40 311
-
363 730
1983
11 106
126
473
1 243
234 000
14 229
5 840
22 975
-
289 992
1984
10 674
11
686
1 010
230 743
8 608
3 663
22 256
-
277 651
1985
13 418
23
1 019
4 395
211 065
7 846
3 335
62 489
4 330
307 920
1986
18 667
591
1 543
10 092
232 096
5 497
7 581
150 541
3 505
430 113
1987
15 036
1
986
7 035
268 004
16 223
10 957
202 314
2 515
523 071
1988
15 329
2 551
605
2 803
223 412
10 905
8 107
169 365
1 862
434 939
1989
15 625
3 231
326
3 291
158 684
7 802
7 056
134 593
1 273
332 481
1990
9 584
592
169
1437
88 737
7 950
3 412
74 609
510
187 000
1991
8 981
975
Greenland
2 613
126 226
3 677
3 981
119 427 3
3 278
269 158
1992
11 663
2
3 337
3 911
168 460
6 217
6 120
182 315
Iceland
1 209
383 234
1993
17435
3 572
5 389
5 887
221 051
8 800
11 336
244 860
9 374
3 907
531 611
1994
22 826
1 962
6 882
8 283
318 395
14 929
15 579
291 925
36 737
28 568
746 086
1995
22 262
4 912
7462
7428
319 987
15 505
16 329
296 158
34 214
15 742
739 999
1996
17 758
5 352
6 529
8 326
319 158
15 871
16 061
305 317
23 005
14 851
732 228
1997
20 076
5 353
6426
6 680
357 825
17 130
18 066
313 344
4 200
13 303
762 403
1998
14 290
1 197
6 388
3 841
284 647
14 212
14 294
244 115
1423
8 217
592 624
1999
13 700
2 137
4 093
3 019
223 390
8 994
11 315
210 379
1 985
5 898
484 910
2000
13 350
2 621
5 787
3 513
192 860
8 695
9 165
166 202
7 562
5 115
4 14 870
2001
12 500
2 681
5 727
4 524
188 431
9 196
8 698
183 572
5 917
5 225
426 471
2002
15 693
2 934
6419
4 517
202 559
8 414
8 977
184 072
5 975
5 484
445 045
2003
19 427
2 921
7 026
4 732
191 977
7 924
8 711
182 160
5 963
6 149
436 990
2004
19 226
3 621
8 196
6 187
212 117
11 285
14 004
201 525
7 201
6 082
489 445
2005
16 273
3 491
8 135
5 848
207 825
9 349
10 744
200 077
5 874
7 660
475 276
2006
16 327
4 376
8 164
3 837
201 987
9 219
10 594
203 782
5 972
6 271
470 527
2007
14 788
3 190
5951
4619
199 809
9 496
9298
186 229
7316
5 101
445 796
2008
15 812
3 149
5 617
4 955
196 598
9 658
8 287
190 225
7 535
7 336
449 171
2009
16 905
3 908
4 977
8 585
224 298
12 013
8 632
229 291
7 380
7442
523 431
2010
15 977
4 499
6 584
8 442
264 701
12 657
9 091
267 547
11 299
9 185
609 983
2011
13 429
1 173
7 155
4 621
331 535
13 291
8 210
310 326
12 734
17 354 4
719 829
2012 5
17523
2841
8520
8 500
315 739
12814
11166
329 943
9536
11 081
727 663
2013
13833
7858
7885
8 010
438 734
15042
12536
432 314
14734
15 263
966 209
2014
33298
8149
10864
6 225
431 846
16378
14762
433 479
18205
13 243
986 449
2015
26568
7480
7055
6427
377 983
19905
11778
381 188
16120
9 880
864 384
2016
24084
7946
8607
6 336
348 949
14640
13583
394 107
16031
15 139
849 422
2017
28637
9554
13638
5 977
357419
144 14
16731
396 180
11925
13 802
868 276
2018
26152
6605
12743
9 768
333 539
13143
11533
340 364
10708
14 071
778 627
2019
22270
6371
7553
8 470
282 120
13939
11214
316 813
12294
11 565
692 609
2020
21679
5796
7391
9 725
289 472
11403
12113
312 683
9734
12 908
692 903
2021 1
21767
4459
8246
6 190
337 931
11080
5426
352 064
8933
11 188
767 284
1 Provisional figures. 2 USSR prior to 1991. 3 Includes Baltic countries. 4 Includes unspecified EU catches. 5 Revised figures.
Year
Area covered
Additional area implied in adjustment
Adjustment method
1981-92
88.1
1993
137.6
1994
161.1
199 5
191.9
1996
166.1
1997
88.4
56.2
Index ratio by age
1998
100.4
51.1
Index ratio by age
1999
118.5
2000
163.2
2001
164.7
2002
157.4
2003
147.4
2004
164.4
2005
179.9
2006
170.1
18.1
Partly covered strata raised to full strata area
2007
123.9
56.7
Index ratio by age
2008
165.2
2009
171.8
2010
160.5
2011
174.3
2012
151.3
16.7
Index ratio by age
2013
20 3.6
2014
2 66.8
2015
243.3
2016
228.0
2017
184.4
37.5
Index ratio by age
2018
236.3
2019
241.2
2020
203.2
25.1
Index ratio by age
2021
242.9
10.9
Index ratio by age
2022
242.4
Table 3.5. Barents Sea winter survey. Area covered (‘000 square nautical miles) and areas implied in the method used to adjust for missing coverage in Russian Economic Zone. In 4 of the 5 adjusted years the adjustments were not based on area ratios, but the “index ratio by age” was used. This means that the index by age (for the area outside REZ) was scaled by the observed ratio between total index and the index outside REZ observed in the years prior to the survey.
Table 3.7. Northeast Arctic COD. Weights-at-age (kg) in landings from various countries
Year
Age
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15+
Russia (trawl only)
1983
0.65
1.05
1.58
2.31
3.39
4.87
6.86
8.72
10.40
12.07
14.43
1984
0.53
0.88
1.45
2.22
3.21
4.73
6.05
8.43
10.34
12.61
14.95
1985
0.33
0.77
1.31
1.84
2.96
4.17
5.94
6.38
8.58
10.28
1986
0.29
0.61
1.14
1.75
2.45
4.17
6.18
8.04
9.48
11.33
12.35
14.13
1987
0.24
0.52
0.88
1.42
2.07
2.96
5.07
7.56
8.93
10.80
13.05
18.16
1988
0.27
0.49
0.88
1.32
2.06
3.02
4.40
6.91
9.15
11.65
12.53
14.68
1989
0.50
0.73
1.00
1.39
1.88
2.67
4.06
6.09
7.76
9.88
1990
0.45
0.83
1.21
1.70
2.27
3.16
4.35
6.25
8.73
10.85
13.52
1991
0.36
0.64
1.05
2.03
2.85
3.77
4.92
6.13
8.36
10.44
15.84
19.33
1992
0.55
1.20
1.44
2.07
3.04
4.24
5.14
5.97
7.25
9.28
11.36
1993
0.48
0.78
1.39
2.06
2.62
4.07
5.72
6.79
7.59
11.26
14.79
17.71
1994
0.41
0.81
1.24
1.80
2.55
2.88
4.96
6.91
8.12
10.28
12.42
16.93
1995
0.37
0.77
1.21
1.74
2.37
3.40
4.71
6.73
8.47
9.58
12.03
16.99
1996
0.30
0.64
1.09
1.60
2.37
3.42
5.30
7.86
8.86
10.87
11.80
1997
0.30
0.57
1.00
1.52
2.18
3.30
4.94
7.15
10.08
11.87
13.54
1998
0.33
0.68
1.06
1.60
2.34
3.39
5.03
6.89
10.76
12.39
13.61
14.72
1999
0.24
0.58
0.98
1.41
2.17
3.26
4.42
5.70
7.27
10.24
14.12
2000
0.18
0.48
0.85
1.44
2.16
3.12
4.44
5.79
7.49
9.66
10.36
2001
0.12
0.31
0.62
1.00
1.53
2.30
3.31
4.57
6.55
8.11
9.52
11.99
2002
0.20
0.60
1.05
1.46
2.14
3.27
4.47
6.23
8.37
10.06
12.37
2003
0.23
0.63
1.06
1.78
2.40
3.41
4.86
6.28
7.55
11.10
13.41
12.12
14.51
2004
0.30
0.57
1.09
1.55
2.37
3.20
4.73
6.92
8.41
9.77
11.08
2005
0.33
0.65
0.98
1.50
2.10
3.08
4.31
5.81
8.42
10.37
13.56
14.13
2006
0.27
0.68
1.05
1.49
2.25
3.16
4.54
5.90
8.59
10.31
12.31
2007
0.23
0.67
1.12
1.66
2.25
3.31
4.57
6.27
8.20
10.02
12.36
12.42
2008
0.28
0.64
1.16
1.74
2.65
3.58
4.74
5.73
7.32
8.07
9.52
12.52
2009
0.31
0.64
1.09
1.58
2.11
3.19
4.80
6.58
7.97
9.84
11.51
2010
0.25
0.57
1.00
1.64
2.28
3.14
4.53
5.98
8.03
9.71
10.70
13.53
2011
0.25
0.62
1.05
1.56
2.18
2.95
4.33
6.21
8.04
10.13
12.25
15.18
2012
0.29
0.60
1.07
1.66
2.25
2.95
4.17
6.23
8.58
11.08
12.24
14.07
15.22
16.39
2013
0.33
0.63
1.05
1.54
2.26
3.09
4.08
5.47
7.37
9.59
12.57
15.54
17.05
2014
0.32
0.61
1.05
1.61
2.26
3.15
4.00
5.24
7.13
9.46
11.18
14.47
2015
0.30
0.60
0.97
1.49
2.11
3.13
4.64
5.78
7.13
9.53
12.12
16.71
17.37
2016
0.26
0.55
0.97
1.53
2.20
3.19
4.50
6.12
7.97
9.55
10.95
14.35
14.74
17.25
2017
0.33
0.63
1.03
1.56
2.24
3.24
4.67
6.34
7.74
9.40
11.12
14.43
16.67
11.91
2018
0.33
0.68
1.06
1.62
2.40
3.22
4.66
6.23
7.79
8.91
10.26
11.26
13.41
10.14
2019
0.29
0.62
1.10
1.60
2.33
3.22
4.44
6.45
8.10
9.60
11.02
13.83
10.65
10.65
2020
0.27
0.47
0.93
1.44
2.05
2.95
4.28
5.73
7.59
8.45
10.66
12.26
12.18
12.23
2021
0.19
0.44
0.76
1.35
2.02
2.81
4.25
6.26
7.81
9.59
10.67
10.86
13.62
12.31
Table 3.7. Northeast Arctic COD. Weights-at-age (kg) in landings from various countries (continued)
Year
Age
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15+
Germany (Division IIa and IIb)
1994
0.68
1.04
2.24
3.49
4.51
5.79
6.93
8.16
8.46
8.74
9.48
15.25
1995
0.44
0.84
1.5
2.72
3.81
4.46
4.81
7.37
7.69
8.25
9.47
1996
0.84
1.15
1.64
2.53
3.58
4.13
3.9
4.68
6.98
6.43
11.32
1997
0.43
0.92
1.42
2.01
3.15
4.04
5.16
4.82
3.96
7.04
8.8
1998
0.23
0.73
1.17
1.89
2.72
3.25
4.13
5.63
6.5
8.57
8.42
11.45
8.79
19991
0.853
1.448
1.998
2.65
3.473
4.156
5.447
6.82
5.902
8.01
20002
0.26
0.73
1.36
2.04
2.87
3.67
4.88
5.78
7.05
8.45
8.67
9.33
6.88
2001
0.38
0.80
1.21
1.90
2.74
3.90
4.99
5.69
7.15
7.32
11.72
9.11
6.60
2002
0.35
1.00
1.31
1.80
2.53
3.64
4.38
5.07
6.82
9.21
7.59
13.18
19.17
19.20
2003
0.22
0.44
1.04
1.71
2.31
3.27
4.93
6.17
7.77
9.61
9.99
12.29
13.59
20042
0.22
0.73
1.01
1.75
2.58
3.33
4.73
6.32
7.20
8.45
9.20
11.99
10.14
13.11
20053
0.57
0.77
1.13
1.66
2.33
3.36
4.38
5.92
6.65
7.26
10.01
11.14
20062
0.71
0.91
1.39
1.88
2.56
3.77
5.33
6.68
9.14
10.89
11.51
16.83
18.77
20073
0.59
1.35
1.79
2.51
3.53
4.00
4.95
6.55
7.54
9.71
11.40
11.57
23.34
15.61
20083
0.23
0.51
1.14
1.76
2.57
3.15
4.40
5.43
7.18
8.39
10.15
10.03
10.99
14.26
20093
0.35
0.60
1.19
1.83
2.96
4.08
5.61
6.97
8.55
9.13
10.54
13.34
10.30
17.06
20103
0.36
0.67
0.93
1.71
2.46
3.21
4.93
6.75
7.80
8.70
8.53
10.17
12.36
14.11
20111
1.75
3.09
3.30
3.28
4.13
4.99
6.61
7.91
9.38
10.79
14.67
14.91
20133
1.03
1.37
1.87
2.65
3.45
4.49
7.26
11.42
12.86
13.07
20144
0.68
0.96
1.39
1.69
3.06
4.07
5.65
8.15
10.36
13.07
13.52
20154
0.82
1.05
1.67
2.33
3.56
4.50
5.41
6.20
6.39
20161
1.38
2.60
3.55
4.81
6.33
7.61
8.90
9.26
10.83
13.41
16.84
17.03
17.76
20171
1.58
2.79
3.93
3.93
4.77
6.35
8.16
9.09
10.39
11.24
12.48
14.39
13.04
20183
0.58
1.16
1.76
2.45
3.34
4.13
5.81
7.16
8.99
9.96
10.85
11.73
14.01
17.79
20191
0.82
1.37
1.80
2.26
3.49
4.45
5.44
7.08
9.25
9.39
13.30
12.24
15.25
20205
1.6
1.63
2.48
3.13
5.01
5.93
8.36
9.31
12.16
12.96
12.77
14.08
20212
0.68
1.3
1.52
2.25
3.22
4.58
6.49
7.43
10.37
11.73
14.64
14.34
15.74
1 Division IIa only 2 IIa and IIb combined 3 I,IIa and IIb combined 4 Division II b only 5 I and IIa combined
Table 3.7. Northeast Arctic COD. Weights-at-age (kg) in landings from various countries (continued)
Year
Age
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15+
Spain (Division IIb)
1994
0.43
1.08
1.38
2.32
2.47
2.68
3.46
5.20
7.04
6.79
7.20
8.04
10.46
15.35
1995
0.42
0.51
0.98
1.99
3.41
4.95
5.52
8.62
9.21
11.42
9.78
8.08
1996
0.66
1.12
1.57
2.43
3.17
3.59
4.44
5.48
6.79
8.10
19971
0.51
0.65
1.22
1.68
2.60
3.39
4.27
6.67
7.88
11.34
13.33
10.03
8.69
1998
0.47
0.74
1.15
1.82
2.44
3.32
3.71
5.00
7.26
19991
0.21
0.69
1.06
1.69
2.50
3.32
4.72
5.76
6.77
7.24
7.63
20001
0.23
0.61
1.24
1.75
2.47
3.12
4.65
6.06
7.66
10.94
11.40
7.20
2001
0.23
0.64
1.25
1.95
2.86
3.55
4.95
6.46
8.50
11.07
13.09
2002
0.16
0.55
1.00
1.48
2.17
3.29
4.47
5.35
8.29
12.23
9.01
12.16
15.2
2003
0.58
1.05
1.70
2.33
3.33
4.92
6.24
9.98
13.07
14.74
14.17
20041
0.31
0.56
0.80
1.28
1.96
2.59
3.72
5.36
5.28
7.41
11.43
20051
0.63
1.14
1.85
2.48
3.43
4.25
5.38
8.41
11.19
15.04
16.93
2006
0.30
0.61
0.99
1.46
2.04
2.55
3.39
3.50
4.70
6.36
2007
0.42
0.60
1.20
1.76
2.40
3.18
3.96
5.19
6.61
9.48
7.65
12.65
15.74
19.66
20091
0.12
0.45
0.95
1.60
2.18
3.36
4.52
6.04
7.30
9.42
10.35
11.47
12.54
20102
0.18
0.56
1.11
1.73
2.36
3.36
5.14
6.88
8.64
9.65
6.83
20111
0.45
0.90
1.26
1.84
2.55
4.08
5.61
8.17
8.14
7.31
8.91
20122
0.40
0.84
1.29
1.96
2.78
3.71
4.99
7.42
7.19
9.32
2013
0.17
0.72
1.06
1.63
2.36
3.14
3.90
4.36
6.55
2014
0.24
0.43
0.74
1.27
1.85
2.60
3.56
4.51
5.52
7.18
9.42
9.26
13.16
15.05
20152
0.40
0.80
1.19
1.79
2.45
3.38
4.41
5.85
6.64
7.48
6.77
20163
0.11
0.38
0.76
1.20
1.72
2.50
3.39
4.96
7.11
8.56
20172
0.12
0.42
0.75
1.17
1.69
2.50
3.39
4.47
5.69
5.93
6.00
10.91
13.57
10.52
20182
0.19
0.45
0.83
1.30
1.86
2.57
3.55
4.92
5.51
7.84
7.08
7.28
20192
0.19
0.39
0.90
1.30
1.85
2.65
3.48
4.83
5.96
5.67
7.04
8.36
20212
0.36
0.60
1.20
1.83
2.49
3.11
4.55
6.10
6.50
7.03
9.013
17.13
1 IIa and IIb combined 2 I,IIa and IIb combined 3 I and IIb combined
Iceland (Sub-area I)
1994
0.42
0.85
1.44
2.77
3.54
4.08
5.84
6.37
7.02
7.48
7.37
1995
1.17
0.91
1.60
2.28
3.61
4.73
6.27
6.26
1996
0.36
0.99
1.55
2.83
3.79
4.81
5.34
7.25
7.68
9.08
8.98
10.52
1997
0.42
0.43
0.76
1.60
2.40
3.45
4.40
5.74
6.15
8.28
10.52
9.89
UK (England & Wales)
19951
1.47
2.11
3.47
5.57
6.43
7.17
8.12
8.05
10.2
10.1
19962
1.55
1.81
2.42
3.61
6.3
6.47
7.83
7.91
8.93
9.38
10.9
19972
1.93
2.17
3.07
4.17
4.89
6.46
12.3
8.44
1Division IIa and IIb 2Division IIa
Poland (Division IIb)
2006
0.18
0.51
0.89
1.55
2.23
3.6
5.28
6.95
8.478
11
10.8
15.6
18.9
2008
0.49
0.90
1.45
2.24
2.79
3.82
4.68
5.015
6.45
7.02
7.22
5.99
6.91
2009
1.02
1.72
2.65
3.81
5.23
6.91
8.862
11.1
13.6
16.5
2010
1.39
1.66
2.29
2.98
3.92
5.18
6.313
6.66
8.72
9.05
2011
0.99
1.50
2.17
3.15
4.43
7.45
7.28
20161
0.84
1.59
2.29
2.81
3.91
4.78
5.61
6.709
7.89
8.54
11.6
13.7
16.09
20172
0.71
1.23
1.52
2.47
3.52
4.78
6.97
9.193
9.95
10.9
14.1
20183
0.74
1.15
1.66
2.45
3.55
4.48
6.06
6.31
7.59
7.91
8.28
8.52
9.40
20191
1.57
2.00
2.69
4.04
5.61
7.23
9.13
11.62
12.41
13.46
11.47
1 Division IIa 2 Division IIa and IIb 3 I and IIb combined
Table 3.7. Northeast Arctic COD. Weights at age (kg) in landings from various countries (continued)
Year_age
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
+gp
1946
0.35
0.59
1.11
1.69
2.37
3.17
3.98
5.05
5.92
7.2
8.15
8.13
9.25
1947
0.32
0.56
0.95
1.5
2.14
2.92
3.65
4.56
5.84
7.42
8.85
8.79
10
1948
0.34
0.53
1.26
1.93
2.46
3.36
4.22
5.31
5.92
7.09
8.43
8.18
9.43
1949
0.37
0.67
1.11
1.66
2.5
3.23
4.07
5.27
5.99
7.08
8.22
8.26
8.7
1950
0.39
0.64
1.29
1.7
2.36
3.48
4.52
5.62
6.4
7.96
8.89
9.07
10.27
1951
0.4
0.83
1.39
1.88
2.54
3.46
4.88
5.2
7.14
8.22
9.39
9.5
9.52
1952
0.44
0.8
1.33
1.92
2.64
3.71
5.06
6.05
7.42
8.43
10.19
10.13
10.56
1953
0.4
0.76
1.28
1.93
2.81
3.72
5.06
6.34
7.4
8.67
10.24
11.41
11.93
1954
0.44
0.77
1.26
1.97
3.03
4.33
5.4
6.75
7.79
10.67
9.68
9.56
11.11
1955
0.32
0.57
1.13
1.73
2.75
3.94
4.9
7.04
7.2
8.78
10.08
11.02
12.11
1956
0.33
0.58
1.07
1.83
2.89
4.25
5.55
7.28
8
8.35
9.94
10.25
11.56
1957
0.33
0.59
1.02
1.82
2.89
4.28
5.49
7.51
8.24
9.25
10.61
10.82
12.07
1958
0.34
0.52
0.95
1.92
2.94
4.21
5.61
7.35
8.67
9.58
11.63
11
13.83
1959
0.35
0.72
1.47
2.68
3.59
4.32
5.45
6.44
7.17
8.63
11.62
11.95
13
1960
0.34
0.51
1.09
2.13
3.38
4.87
6.12
8.49
7.79
8.3
11.42
11.72
13.42
1961
0.31
0.55
1.05
2.2
3.23
5.11
6.15
8.15
8.68
9.6
11.95
13.18
13.42
1962
0.32
0.55
0.93
1.7
3.03
5.03
6.55
7.7
9.27
10.56
12.72
13.48
14.44
1963
0.32
0.61
0.96
1.73
3.04
4.96
6.44
7.91
9.62
11.31
12.74
13.19
14.29
1964
0.33
0.55
0.95
1.86
3.25
4.97
6.41
8.07
9.34
10.16
12.89
13.25
14
1965
0.38
0.68
1.03
1.49
2.41
3.52
5.73
7.54
8.47
11.17
13.72
13.46
14.12
1966
0.44
0.74
1.18
1.78
2.46
3.82
5.36
7.27
8.63
10.66
14.15
14
15
1967
0.29
0.81
1.35
2.04
2.81
3.48
4.89
7.11
9.03
10.59
13.83
14.15
16.76
1968
0.33
0.7
1.48
2.12
3.14
4.21
5.27
6.65
9.01
9.66
14.85
16.3
17
1969
0.44
0.79
1.23
2.03
2.9
3.81
5.02
6.43
8.33
10.71
14.21
15
17
1970
0.37
0.91
1.34
2
3
4.15
5.59
7.6
8.97
10.99
14.07
14.61
16
1971
0.45
0.88
1.38
2.16
3.07
4.22
5.81
7.13
8.62
10.83
12.95
14.25
15.97
1972
0.38
0.77
1.43
2.12
3.23
4.38
5.83
7.62
9.52
12.09
13.67
13.85
16
1973
0.38
0.91
1.54
2.26
3.29
4.61
6.57
8.37
10.54
11.62
13.9
14
15.84
1974
0.32
0.66
1.17
2.22
3.21
4.39
5.52
7.86
9.82
11.41
13.24
13.7
14.29
1975
0.41
0.64
1.11
1.9
2.95
4.37
5.74
8.77
9.92
11.81
13.11
14
14.29
1976
0.35
0.73
1.19
2.01
2.76
4.22
5.88
9.3
10.28
11.86
13.54
14.31
14.28
1977
0.49
0.9
1.43
2.05
3.3
4.56
6.46
8.63
9.93
10.9
13.67
14.26
14.91
1978
0.49
0.81
1.45
2.15
3.04
4.46
6.54
7.98
10.15
10.85
13.18
14
15
1979
0.35
0.7
1.24
2.14
3.15
4.29
6.58
8.61
9.22
10.89
14.34
14.5
15.31
1980
0.27
0.56
1.02
1.72
3.02
4.2
5.84
7.26
8.84
9.28
14.45
15
15.5
1981
0.49
0.98
1.44
2.09
2.98
4.85
6.57
9.16
10.82
10.77
13.93
15
16
1982
0.37
0.66
1.35
1.99
2.93
4.24
6.46
8.51
12.24
10.78
14.04
15
16
1983
0.84
1.37
2.09
2.86
3.99
5.58
7.77
9.29
11.55
11.42
12.8
14.18
15.55
1984
1.42
1.93
2.49
3.14
3.91
4.91
6.02
7.4
8.13
11.42
12.8
14.18
15.55
1985
0.94
1.37
2.02
3.22
4.63
6.04
7.66
9.81
11.8
11.42
12.8
14.18
15.55
1986
0.64
1.27
1.88
2.79
4.49
5.84
6.83
7.69
9.81
11.42
12.8
14.18
15.55
1987
0.49
0.88
1.55
2.33
3.44
5.92
8.6
9.6
12.17
11.42
12.8
14.18
15.55
1988
0.54
0.85
1.32
2.24
3.52
5.35
8.06
9.51
11.36
11.42
12.8
14.18
15.55
1989
0.74
0.96
1.31
1.92
2.93
4.64
7.52
9.12
11.08
11.42
12.8
14.18
15.55
1990
0.81
1.22
1.64
2.22
3.24
4.68
7.3
9.84
13.25
11.42
12.8
14.18
15.55
1991
1.05
1.45
2.15
2.89
3.75
4.71
6.08
8.82
11.8
11.42
12.8
14.18
15.55
1992
1.16
1.57
2.21
3.1
4.27
5.19
6.14
7.77
10.12
11.42
12.8
14.18
15.55
1993
0.81
1.52
2.16
2.79
4.07
5.53
6.47
7.19
7.98
11.457
12.8
14.18
15.55
1994
0.82
1.3
2.06
2.89
3.21
5.2
6.8
7.57
8.01
9.955
13.012
14.18
15.55
1995
0.77
1.2
1.78
2.59
3.81
4.99
6.23
8.05
8.74
9.774
11.388
14.546
15.55
1996
0.79
1.11
1.61
2.46
3.82
5.72
6.74
8.04
9.28
10.451
11.19
12.819
16.045
1997
0.67
1.04
1.53
2.22
3.42
5.2
7.19
7.73
8.61
11.145
11.926
12.608
14.234
1998
0.68
1.05
1.62
2.3
3.3
4.86
6.87
9.3
10.3
10.754
12.676
13.394
14.011
1999
0.63
1.01
1.54
2.34
3.21
4.29
6
6.73
10.08
11.151
12.255
14.191
14.839
2000
0.57
1.04
1.61
2.34
3.34
4.48
5.72
7.52
8.02
11.93
12.682
13.743
15.675
2001
0.66
1.05
1.62
2.51
3.51
4.78
6.04
7.54
9
10.23
13.519
14.197
15.206
2002
0.72
1.13
1.56
2.31
3.52
4.78
6.2
7.66
9.14
10.379
11.687
15.081
15.681
2003
0.67
1.12
1.83
2.5
3.58
5.04
6.36
8.2
10.71
10.167
11.848
13.138
16.602
2004
0.72
1.13
1.61
2.43
3.27
4.72
6.71
7.98
9.19
10.84
11.619
13.31
14.571
2005
0.69
1.08
1.57
2.21
3.26
4.44
6.23
8.19
9.72
10.626
12.347
13.066
14.752
2006
0.72
1.16
1.6
2.39
3.32
4.54
5.47
6.78
7.7
10.8
12.116
13.842
14.494
2007
0.74
1.21
1.83
2.51
3.82
5.04
6.58
8.08
8.94
10.349
12.304
13.596
15.309
2008
0.77
1.27
1.87
2.82
3.79
5.12
6.22
7.75
8.4
10.139
11.816
13.795
15.052
2009
0.75
1.17
1.74
2.42
3.86
5.35
6.43
8.01
8.67
10.055
11.588
13.276
15.261
2010
0.78
1.2
1.74
2.44
3.4
5.04
6.25
7.32
8.53
10.378
11.496
13.033
14.715
2011
0.78
1.31
1.72
2.37
3.2
4.62
6.18
7.47
8.57
10.387
11.847
12.935
14.459
2012
0.67
1.14
1.73
2.34
3.12
4.4
6.28
8.24
10.35
10.367
11.857
13.309
14.356
2013
0.71
1.17
1.67
2.36
3.19
4.22
5.58
7.31
9.08
11.029
11.835
13.32
14.75
2014
0.79
1.2
1.73
2.34
3.28
4.21
5.49
6.98
8.67
10.823
12.551
13.297
14.761
2015
0.78
1.09
1.55
2.18
3.14
4.46
5.61
6.62
7.34
10.215
12.328
14.058
14.737
2016
0.78
1.14
1.66
2.26
3.25
4.5
5.98
7.31
8.54
9.372
11.67
13.822
15.536
2017
0.71
1.15
1.66
2.32
3.32
4.67
6.13
7.15
8.14
9.597
10.752
13.121
15.288
2018
0.86
1.17
1.71
2.5
3.31
4.61
6.03
7.32
8.06
9.707
10.998
12.137
14.552
2019
0.68
1.15
1.66
2.39
3.33
4.45
6.11
7.29
8.41
9.806
11.117
12.401
13.513
2020
0.709
1.084
1.604
2.195
3.092
4.39
5.731
7.218
8.406
9.989
11.226
12.529
13.793
2021
0.527
0.896
1.487
2.159
2.982
4.364
6.048
7.348
8.796
9.991
11.424
12.645
13.928
Table 3.8. Northeast Arctic COD. Catch weights at age (kg)
Year_age
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
+gp
1946
0.35
0.59
1.11
1.69
2.37
3.17
3.98
5.05
5.92
7.2
8.146
8.133
9.253
1947
0.32
0.56
0.95
1.5
2.14
2.92
3.65
4.56
5.84
7.42
8.848
8.789
9.998
1948
0.34
0.53
1.26
1.93
2.46
3.36
4.22
5.31
5.92
7.09
8.43
8.181
9.433
1949
0.37
0.67
1.11
1.66
2.5
3.23
4.07
5.27
5.99
7.08
8.218
8.259
8.701
1950
0.39
0.64
1.29
1.7
2.36
3.48
4.52
5.62
6.4
7.96
8.891
9.07
10.271
1951
0.4
0.83
1.39
1.88
2.54
3.46
4.88
5.2
7.14
8.22
9.389
9.502
9.517
1952
0.44
0.8
1.33
1.92
2.64
3.71
5.06
6.05
7.42
8.43
10.185
10.134
10.563
1953
0.4
0.76
1.28
1.93
2.81
3.72
5.06
6.34
7.4
8.67
10.238
11.409
11.926
1954
0.44
0.77
1.26
1.97
3.03
4.33
5.4
6.75
7.79
10.67
9.68
9.557
11.106
1955
0.32
0.57
1.13
1.73
2.75
3.94
4.9
7.04
7.2
8.78
10.077
11.023
12.105
1956
0.33
0.58
1.07
1.83
2.89
4.25
5.55
7.28
8
8.35
9.944
10.248
11.564
1957
0.33
0.59
1.02
1.82
2.89
4.28
5.49
7.51
8.24
9.25
10.605
10.825
12.075
1958
0.34
0.52
0.95
1.92
2.94
4.21
5.61
7.35
8.67
9.58
11.631
11
13.832
1959
0.35
0.72
1.47
2.68
3.59
4.32
5.45
6.44
7.17
8.63
11.621
11.95
13
1960
0.34
0.51
1.09
2.13
3.38
4.87
6.12
8.49
7.79
8.3
11.422
11.719
13.424
1961
0.31
0.55
1.05
2.2
3.23
5.11
6.15
8.15
8.68
9.6
11.952
13.181
13.422
1962
0.32
0.55
0.93
1.7
3.03
5.03
6.55
7.7
9.27
10.56
12.717
13.482
14.44
1963
0.32
0.61
0.96
1.73
3.04
4.96
6.44
7.91
9.62
11.31
12.737
13.193
14.287
1964
0.33
0.55
0.95
1.86
3.25
4.97
6.41
8.07
9.34
10.16
12.886
13.251
14
1965
0.38
0.68
1.03
1.49
2.41
3.52
5.73
7.54
8.47
11.17
13.722
13.465
14.118
1966
0.44
0.74
1.18
1.78
2.46
3.82
5.36
7.27
8.63
10.66
14.148
14
15
1967
0.29
0.81
1.35
2.04
2.81
3.48
4.89
7.11
9.03
10.59
13.829
14.146
16.756
1968
0.33
0.7
1.48
2.12
3.14
4.21
5.27
6.65
9.01
9.66
14.848
16.3
17
1969
0.44
0.79
1.23
2.03
2.9
3.81
5.02
6.43
8.33
10.71
14.211
15
17
1970
0.37
0.91
1.34
2
3
4.15
5.59
7.6
8.97
10.99
14.074
14.611
16
1971
0.45
0.88
1.38
2.16
3.07
4.22
5.81
7.13
8.62
10.83
12.945
14.25
15.973
1972
0.38
0.77
1.43
2.12
3.23
4.38
5.83
7.62
9.52
12.09
13.673
13.852
16
1973
0.38
0.91
1.54
2.26
3.29
4.61
6.57
8.37
10.54
11.62
13.904
14
15.841
1974
0.32
0.66
1.17
2.22
3.21
4.39
5.52
7.86
9.82
11.41
13.242
13.704
14.291
1975
0.41
0.64
1.11
1.9
2.95
4.37
5.74
8.77
9.92
11.81
13.107
14
14.293
1976
0.35
0.73
1.19
2.01
2.76
4.22
5.88
9.3
10.28
11.86
13.544
14.311
14.284
1977
0.49
0.9
1.43
2.05
3.3
4.56
6.46
8.63
9.93
10.9
13.668
14.255
14.906
1978
0.49
0.81
1.45
2.15
3.04
4.46
6.54
7.98
10.15
10.85
13.177
14
15
1979
0.35
0.7
1.24
2.14
3.15
4.29
6.58
8.61
9.22
10.89
14.344
14.5
15.315
1980
0.27
0.56
1.02
1.72
3.02
4.2
5.84
7.26
8.84
9.28
14.448
15
15.5
1981
0.49
0.98
1.44
2.09
2.98
4.85
6.57
9.16
10.82
10.77
13.932
15
16
1982
0.37
0.66
1.35
1.99
2.93
4.24
6.46
8.51
12.24
10.78
14.041
15
16
1983
0.37
0.92
1.6
2.44
3.82
4.76
6.17
7.7
9.25
12.621
14.544
16.466
18.388
1984
0.42
1.16
1.81
2.79
3.78
4.57
6.17
7.7
9.25
12.621
14.544
16.466
18.388
1985
0.413
0.875
1.603
2.81
4.059
5.833
7.685
10.117
14.29
12.621
14.544
16.466
18.388
1986
0.311
0.88
1.47
2.467
3.915
5.81
6.58
6.833
11.004
12.621
14.544
16.466
18.388
1987
0.211
0.498
1.254
2.047
3.431
5.137
6.523
9.3
13.15
12.621
14.544
16.466
18.388
1988
0.212
0.404
0.79
1.903
2.977
4.392
7.812
12.112
13.107
12.621
14.544
16.466
18.388
1989
0.299
0.52
0.868
1.477
2.686
4.628
7.048
9.98
9.25
12.621
14.544
16.466
18.388
1990
0.398
0.705
1.182
1.719
2.458
3.565
4.71
7.801
8.956
12.621
14.544
16.466
18.388
1991
0.518
1.136
1.743
2.428
3.214
4.538
6.88
10.719
9.445
12.621
14.544
16.466
18.388
1992
0.44
0.931
1.812
2.716
3.895
5.176
6.774
9.598
12.427
12.621
14.544
16.466
18.388
1993
0.344
1.172
1.82
2.823
4.031
5.497
6.765
8.571
10.847
12.621
14.544
16.466
18.388
1994
0.237
0.757
1.419
2.458
3.845
5.374
6.648
7.653
8.136
12.916
16.114
16.466
18.388
1995
0.197
0.487
1.141
2.118
3.504
4.915
6.949
9.051
9.775
11.409
15.248
18.62
18.388
1996
0.206
0.482
0.98
2.041
3.52
5.507
7.74
9.922
10.63
12.093
13.533
17.659
21.171
1997
0.211
0.537
1.11
1.876
3.381
5.258
8.546
10.653
10.776
13.232
14.313
15.745
20.122
1998
0.242
0.561
1.179
1.936
2.944
4.583
7.092
10.7
12.042
13.771
15.607
16.617
18.021
1999
0.209
0.514
1.183
2.007
3.037
4.479
6.512
10.028
11.117
14.698
16.215
18.057
18.981
2000
0.194
0.465
1.218
1.963
3.064
4.12
5.746
7.157
9.961
14.589
17.26
18.733
20.557
2001
0.284
0.513
1.21
2.25
3.299
5.066
6.373
9.29
11.456
13.317
17.138
19.887
21.294
2002
0.23
0.603
1.184
2.138
3.336
4.81
6.912
8.809
10.475
12.534
15.703
19.752
22.549
2003
0.233
0.551
1.317
2.022
3.239
4.984
6.727
8.422
14.226
12.524
14.815
18.164
22.403
2004
0.24
0.55
1.074
2.038
2.911
4.402
6.263
8.535
10.197
12.371
14.803
17.176
20.674
2005
0.225
0.61
1.083
1.87
3.002
3.971
5.789
8.127
12.759
12.611
14.63
17.163
19.594
2006
0.252
0.591
1.219
2.014
3.028
4.434
5.999
7.774
9.954
13.679
14.902
16.97
19.58
2007
0.249
0.663
1.329
2.127
3.183
4.59
6.477
8.88
12.124
12.261
16.111
17.274
19.368
2008
0.286
0.726
1.418
2.41
3.331
4.914
6.747
8.851
10.393
12.776
14.504
18.617
19.701
2009
0.274
0.652
1.353
2.312
3.803
5.103
6.75
9.252
10.119
12.323
15.09
16.83
21.168
2010
0.258
0.608
1.208
2.01
3.088
4.903
6.498
7.992
9.689
12.467
14.574
17.483
19.214
2011
0.225
0.6
1.097
1.926
2.861
4.403
6.531
8.648
9.885
12.508
14.738
16.909
19.929
2012
0.227
0.555
1.182
1.834
2.831
4.124
6.056
8.584
11.498
12.249
14.785
17.092
19.3
2013
0.247
0.577
1.134
1.998
2.841
4.015
5.523
8.077
10.304
13.207
14.491
17.144
19.501
2014
0.216
0.577
1.137
1.791
2.781
3.85
5.245
6.992
9.378
12.746
15.578
16.816
19.558
2015
0.229
0.54
1.134
1.934
2.753
4.081
5.315
7.135
8.947
11.778
15.056
18.025
19.198
2016
0.21
0.536
1.001
1.812
2.72
3.958
5.64
7.064
8.569
10.885
13.954
17.445
20.522
2017
0.255
0.675
1.107
1.896
2.826
4.158
5.7
7.628
9.071
10.634
12.934
16.216
19.888
2018
0.286
0.62
1.188
1.949
2.768
4.059
5.749
7.38
9.097
10.8
12.646
15.073
18.54
2019
0.24
0.603
1.085
1.82
3.025
4.296
5.891
7.293
9.667
11.186
12.837
14.749
17.28
2020
0.148
0.503
1.055
1.692
2.59
4.064
5.617
7.673
9.313
11.306
13.278
14.964
16.922
2021
0.17
0.437
0.954
1.718
2.669
3.804
5.822
7.396
9.334
11.187
13.415
15.459
17.159
2022
0.293
0.48
0.929
1.616
2.741
3.933
5.744
8.012
9.648
11.255
13.279
15.613
17.706
Table 3.9. Northeast Arctic COD. Stock weights at age (kg)
Norway
Percentage mature
Age
Year
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1982
0
5
10
34
65
82
92
100
1983
5
8
10
30
73
88
97
100
Russia
Percentage mature
Age
Year
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
1984
0
5
18
31
56
90
99
100
1985
0
1
10
33
59
85
92
100
1986
0
2
9
19
56
76
89
100
1987
0
1
9
23
27
61
81
80
1988
0
1
3
25
53
79
100
100
1989
0
0
2
15
39
59
83
100
1990
0
2
6
20
47
62
81
95
1991
0
3
1
23
66
82
96
100
1992
0
1
8
31
73
92
95
100
1993
0
3
7
21
56
89
95
99
1994
0
1
8
30
55
84
95
98
1995
0
0
4
23
61
75
94
97
1996
0
0
1
22
56
82
95
100
1997
0
0
1
10
48
73
90
100
1998
0
0
2
15
47
87
97
96
1999
0
0.2
1.3
9.9
38.4
74.9
94
100
2000
0
0
6
19.2
51.4
84
95.5
100
2001
0.1
0.1
3.9
27.9
62.3
89.4
96.3
100
2002
0.1
1.9
10.9
34.4
68.1
82.8
97.6
100
2003
0.2
0
11
29.2
65.9
89.6
95.1
100
2004
0
0.7
8
33.8
63.3
83.4
96.4
96.4
2005
0
0.6
4.6
24.2
61.5
84.9
95.3
98.1
2006
0
0
6.1
29.6
59.6
89.5
96.4
100
2007
0
0.4
5.7
20.8
60.4
83.5
96
100
2008
0
0.5
4
24.6
48.3
84.4
94.7
98.7
2009
0
0
6
28
66
85
97
100
2010
0
0.2
1.5
22.8
47
77.4
90.2
95.5
2011
0
0
2.2
20.7
50.4
73.7
90.6
95.6
2012
0.2
0
1.5
10.8
43.9
76.1
90.8
96.4
2013
0
0
0.6
10.6
41.8
70.6
89.8
96.9
2014
0
0
1.9
14.1
45.9
76
92
97.5
2015
0
0.2
0.2
7.9
27
60.8
83.4
93.7
2016
0
0
0.2
5.2
22.4
44.1
74.8
92.5
2017*
0
0
0.8
6.3
20.8
51.6
80.4
98.6
2018
0
0.5
2.5
23.6
53.9
79.4
92.5
96.0
2019**
0
0
4.5
11.9
56.4
91.8
95.1
100
2020**
0
0.4
1.7
15.8
43.8
71.2
74.9
84.9
2021**
0
0
2.7
16.1
44.1
72.2
87.1
88.1
2022**
0
0
0.8
11.6
59.7
72.6
80.4
96.2
*Not used in inputs (instead ratios presented in WD 10, 2017 used for further calculations) **Not used in inputs (instead ratios presented in WD 15, 2019 used for further calculations)
Table 3.10. Northeast Arctic COD. Basis for maturity ogives (percent) used in the assessment. Norwegian and Russian data.
Table 3.21. Northeast Arctic COD. Detailed prediction output assuming Fsq in 20 22 and HCR in 2023.
Age
F
CatchNos
Yield
StockNos
Biomass
SSNos(Jan)
SSB(Jan)
Fbar age range: 5-10
Year: 2022
F multiplier: 1
Fbar: 0.4810
3
0.011
4382
2
476000
139
6664
2
4
0.067
15944
14
274930
132
0
0
5
0.189
40924
57
264131
245
2641
2
6
0.323
49604
106
197664
319
15615
25
7
0.446
40267
122
122520
336
49253
135
8
0.561
31836
134
81092
319
54656
215
9
0.622
11449
67
26996
155
20409
117
10
0.746
6105
45
12661
101
12344
99
11
0.901
6151
52
11264
109
11264
109
12
0.825
2463
25
4775
54
4775
54
13
0.567
546
6
1378
18
1378
18
14
0.291
170
2
739
12
739
12
15+
0.291
577
8
2511
44
2511
44
Total
NA
210418 (thous)
641(thou. tonnes)
1476661 (thous)
1985 (thou. tonnes)
182250 (thous)
833 (thou. tonnes)
Fbar age range: 5-10
Year: 2023
F multiplier: 1.01
Fbar: 0.4835
3
0.011
5237
3
566000
129
3019
1
4
0.068
18770
16
322026
187
215
0
5
0.190
31420
43
201831
191
2018
2
6
0.324
44095
90
174933
275
19301
30
7
0.449
38549
116
116806
297
44542
113
8
0.564
25305
108
64204
251
45072
176
9
0.625
16135
92
37899
212
32252
181
10
0.749
5742
41
11866
91
11486
88
11
0.905
2695
23
4919
49
4851
48
12
0.829
1940
19
3747
43
3747
43
13
0.570
682
8
1714
23
1714
23
14
0.292
148
2
640
10
640
10
15+
0.292
459
7
1990
35
1990
35
Total
NA
191177 (thous)
567 (thou. tonnes)
1508574 (thous)
1793 (thou. tonnes)
170846 (thous)
751 (thou. tonnes)
Year
B(3+)
SSB
R(3)
F(5-10)
1984
832475
257128
423540
0.794
1985
997042
201878
562013
0.640
1986
1371608
182219
1088448
0.787
1987
1217892
133125
288771
1.030
1988
989270
219074
216731
0.977
1989
919430
242343
174394
0.463
1990
988089
331327
228120
0.310
1991
1576090
725896
407282
0.226
1992
1954099
942530
706308
0.409
1993
2417354
833487
919721
0.619
1994
2202724
648104
714627
0.822
1995
1862607
561769
483248
0.763
1996
1769846
611779
389590
0.732
1997
1653878
660891
645301
1.064
1998
1310048
430437
795960
1.077
1999
1113365
290190
482785
0.922
2000
1092663
249331
566302
0.641
2001
1341324
375817
483100
0.515
2002
1477950
507382
421038
0.507
2003
1578393
545747
669974
0.506
2004
1521547
640634
273873
0.599
2005
1485862
579150
529460
0.603
2006
1510903
599171
529677
0.628
2007
1804575
636829
1260970
0.490
2008
2532511
690152
1237491
0.349
2009
3180322
983447
837192
0.334
2010
3450733
1173373
482215
0.367
2011
3636614
1657124
607215
0.321
2012
3752025
1901044
677845
0.290
2013
3879833
2114406
800478
0.299
2014
3609887
2017731
1012919
0.331
2015
3427586
1611365
497349
0.358
2016
3054495
1319476
359955
0.331
2017
3073171
1483256
732593
0.398
2018
2807889
1385292
510018
0.437
2019
2608769
1327529
530801
0.386
2020
2276282
1090178
368720
0.406
2021
2023565
971926
255602
0.530
2022
1577540
787739
Table 3.22. Northeast Arctic COD. Assessments results by means of TISVPA
Year
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1984
423540
135475
77073
45251
24243
12654
9060
1440
660
412
198
36
24
1985
562013
339808
97750
45065
19561
6752
3332
2368
464
352
170
113
28
1986
1088448
439315
233334
56057
20761
6829
2177
1296
1094
229
248
106
44
1987
288771
807686
293966
115554
22666
7077
2096
737
406
382
75
162
55
1988
216731
213153
524049
145983
35973
6050
2108
737
157
137
113
40
14
1989
174394
165787
150616
284854
60443
9627
1628
615
173
35
48
55
79
1990
228120
138858
117403
95106
154533
25579
3449
655
267
100
17
36
14
1991
407282
185090
106944
83202
61237
97223
14463
2034
376
165
67
10
19
1992
706308
329545
142724
74206
51266
34497
58289
8483
1277
258
121
52
6
1993
919721
558121
241106
93966
40988
25889
16301
30789
4419
755
139
91
4
1994
714627
713450
416255
143703
48128
19010
11208
6726
13079
1835
295
65
14
1995
483248
498374
495670
246587
63316
13694
5954
3276
1937
4053
576
142
3
1996
389590
280514
327233
292254
116764
23190
4683
1944
989
538
1536
288
3
1997
645301
225111
179090
187075
142900
47128
8457
1837
644
335
203
633
3
1998
795960
412991
141348
84808
74507
47580
12041
1942
411
130
68
58
141
1999
482785
495248
244147
69239
31006
25706
11901
3363
465
124
34
23
86
2000
566302
363702
323873
113974
25926
10989
6834
2385
1012
155
53
4
53
2001
483100
436767
264068
172682
49870
9675
3623
1873
651
497
63
33
102
2002
421038
376872
318886
162943
81958
21007
3469
1516
631
254
306
44
29
2003
669974
316334
277940
196002
76114
31310
7627
1320
766
317
111
220
5
2004
273873
520975
240139
173789
99040
32288
12769
3538
615
469
172
72
36
2005
529460
211153
384639
152377
85195
38108
11351
4595
1334
242
260
106
31
2006
529677
387746
153767
217638
74087
32976
13406
4013
1570
562
106
183
630
2007
1260970
424821
269442
95745
106990
32504
12800
4518
1585
555
250
63
170
2008
1237491
964878
311010
158248
54529
54430
16087
6442
2227
797
211
163
81
2009
837192
948353
732626
216807
94049
31657
26730
8427
3583
1172
446
137
131
2010
482215
631431
733100
520182
135327
56469
18030
13975
4998
2098
259
298
213
2011
607215
356825
481574
537231
345907
76533
30143
10155
7387
1817
985
79
0
2012
677845
396238
252910
359807
368609
211181
42902
14792
4356
3426
986
487
167
2013
800478
461064
283877
190409
253330
235295
125950
23966
7629
2046
1851
566
922
2014
1012919
537603
351039
209639
134605
157336
128477
63054
11807
3740
1087
1150
860
2015
497349
695648
383153
248119
138557
82752
80923
64432
31047
6155
1975
638
1208
2016
359955
344880
506831
264221
155082
82398
46705
43675
30885
12144
2828
1208
1495
2017
732593
287981
255836
341890
171641
92871
46365
25315
19253
12614
5745
1606
1147
2018
510018
488492
218871
178786
215496
96968
48310
24005
11943
6318
5023
3102
1001
2019
530801
383163
367726
152573
110772
121786
51320
23778
11112
4205
2210
2308
1318
2020
368720
387242
287531
250662
96645
65067
63376
26380
11469
5250
1778
1212
1087
2021
255602
235570
285109
197022
152009
51599
34042
30961
11737
4464
2856
960
1449
2022
168893
162960
173593
107260
70946
21980
14530
13053
5159
2083
1725
580
Table 3.23. NEA cod TISVPA estimates of abundance at age (thousands)
Year
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
F(5-10)
1984
0.022
0.134
0.317
0.546
0.982
0.988
0.980
0.950
0.301
0.917
0.456
0.456
0.456
0.794
1985
0.021
0.122
0.307
0.451
0.621
0.911
0.769
0.782
0.697
0.232
0.376
0.376
0.376
0.640
1986
0.021
0.154
0.386
0.627
0.749
0.878
1.125
0.956
0.883
0.749
0.439
0.439
0.439
0.787
1987
0.026
0.154
0.508
0.838
1.138
1.104
1.087
1.503
1.102
0.964
0.517
0.517
0.517
1.030
1988
0.025
0.162
0.411
0.903
1.197
1.297
1.020
1.032
1.244
0.902
0.489
0.489
0.489
0.977
1989
0.014
0.089
0.238
0.360
0.578
0.594
0.540
0.466
0.436
0.478
0.252
0.252
0.252
0.463
1990
0.008
0.059
0.158
0.259
0.313
0.415
0.371
0.347
0.283
0.258
0.167
0.167
0.167
0.310
1991
0.007
0.038
0.111
0.186
0.247
0.254
0.292
0.268
0.235
0.188
0.123
0.123
0.123
0.226
1992
0.010
0.068
0.166
0.314
0.445
0.516
0.460
0.550
0.461
0.386
0.211
0.211
0.211
0.409
1993
0.014
0.086
0.258
0.404
0.662
0.822
0.827
0.740
0.832
0.654
0.309
0.309
0.309
0.619
1994
0.017
0.113
0.282
0.559
0.726
1.061
1.131
1.171
0.927
1.008
0.388
0.388
0.388
0.822
1995
0.016
0.106
0.300
0.476
0.785
0.844
1.037
1.136
1.055
0.810
0.383
0.383
0.383
0.763
1996
0.021
0.103
0.290
0.526
0.678
0.954
0.858
1.088
1.070
0.950
0.390
0.390
0.390
0.732
1997
0.027
0.175
0.371
0.703
1.126
1.229
1.560
1.394
1.688
1.540
0.537
0.537
0.537
1.064
1998
0.030
0.176
0.502
0.660
1.046
1.407
1.227
1.618
1.270
1.419
0.538
0.538
0.538
1.077
1999
0.023
0.182
0.457
0.840
0.851
1.106
1.192
1.085
1.229
0.960
0.486
0.486
0.486
0.922
2000
0.018
0.112
0.370
0.563
0.798
0.658
0.699
0.759
0.647
0.683
0.342
0.342
0.342
0.641
2001
0.014
0.097
0.241
0.502
0.604
0.700
0.502
0.542
0.539
0.451
0.272
0.272
0.272
0.515
2002
0.012
0.083
0.242
0.379
0.653
0.651
0.644
0.475
0.475
0.456
0.255
0.255
0.255
0.507
2003
0.013
0.075
0.208
0.387
0.491
0.720
0.612
0.619
0.425
0.410
0.243
0.243
0.243
0.506
2004
0.014
0.097
0.228
0.407
0.637
0.684
0.882
0.757
0.702
0.459
0.284
0.284
0.284
0.599
2005
0.016
0.092
0.263
0.390
0.574
0.764
0.699
0.926
0.725
0.647
0.289
0.289
0.289
0.603
2006
0.016
0.108
0.267
0.494
0.594
0.749
0.860
0.802
0.978
0.730
0.317
0.317
0.317
0.628
2007
0.013
0.087
0.236
0.365
0.544
0.543
0.581
0.673
0.582
0.664
0.258
0.258
0.258
0.490
2008
0.009
0.065
0.173
0.293
0.363
0.450
0.391
0.425
0.450
0.382
0.194
0.194
0.194
0.349
2009
0.008
0.054
0.160
0.271
0.375
0.394
0.426
0.378
0.381
0.390
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.334
2010
0.008
0.055
0.150
0.285
0.396
0.469
0.429
0.474
0.389
0.380
0.200
0.200
0.200
0.367
2011
0.007
0.044
0.130
0.224
0.347
0.410
0.422
0.394
0.404
0.323
0.183
0.183
0.000
0.321
2012
0.007
0.040
0.107
0.198
0.280
0.371
0.383
0.402
0.349
0.346
0.173
0.173
0.173
0.290
2013
0.007
0.048
0.112
0.190
0.291
0.354
0.414
0.435
0.425
0.357
0.191
0.191
0.191
0.299
2014
0.008
0.051
0.145
0.213
0.297
0.396
0.423
0.509
0.496
0.467
0.225
0.225
0.225
0.331
2015
0.009
0.060
0.153
0.277
0.333
0.401
0.470
0.515
0.577
0.541
0.264
0.264
0.264
0.358
2016
0.009
0.056
0.151
0.245
0.363
0.371
0.390
0.466
0.473
0.509
0.258
0.258
0.258
0.331
2017
0.012
0.068
0.177
0.306
0.409
0.527
0.467
0.502
0.561
0.548
0.321
0.321
0.321
0.398
2018
0.014
0.085
0.195
0.322
0.460
0.525
0.590
0.531
0.529
0.570
0.356
0.356
0.356
0.437
2019
0.012
0.083
0.200
0.286
0.384
0.464
0.458
0.523
0.438
0.422
0.315
0.315
0.315
0.386
2020
0.015
0.082
0.228
0.350
0.407
0.465
0.490
0.494
0.523
0.423
0.332
0.332
0.332
0.406
2021
0.014
0.092
0.242
0.408
0.562
0.653
0.651
0.664
0.622
0.562
0.304
0.304
0.304
0.530
Table 3.24. NEA cod TISVPA estimates of fishing mortality coefficients
Sub-area |I
Division IIb
Division IIa
Total
Year
Norway 2
UK 3
Russia 4
Norway 2
UK 3
Russia 4
Norway 2
UK 3
Norway
1966
-
0.074
0.42
-
0.078
0.19
-
0.067
1967
-
0.081
0.53
-
0.106
0.87
-
0.052
1968
-
0.110
1.09
-
0.173
1.21
-
0.056
1969
-
0.113
1.00
-
0.135
1.17
-
0.094
1970
-
0.100
0.80
-
0.100
0.80
-
0.066
1971
-
0.056
0.43
-
0.071
0.16
-
0.062
1972
0.90
0.047
0.34
0.59
0.051
0.18
1.08
0.055
1973
1.05
0.057
0.56
0.43
0.054
0.57
0.71
0.043
1974
1.75
0.079
0.86
1.94
0.106
0.77
0.19
0.028
1975
1.82
0.077
0.94
1.67
0.100
0.43
1.36
0.033
1976
1.69
0.060
0.84
1.20
0.081
0.30
1.69
0.035
1977
1.54
0.052
0.63
0.91
0.056
0.25
1.16
0.044
1.17
1978
1.37
0.062
0.52
0.56
0.044
0.08
1.12
0.037
0.94
1979
0.85
0.046
0.43
0.62
-
0.06
1.06
0.042
0.85
1980
1.47
-
0.49
0.41
-
0.16
1.27
-
1.23
Spain5
Russia4
1981
1.42
-
0.41
(0.96)
-
0.07
1.02
0.35
1.21
1982
1.30
-
0.35
-
0.86
0.26
1.01
0.34
1.09
1983
1.58
-
0.31
(1.31)
0.92
0.36
1.05
0.38
1.11
1984
1.40
-
0.45
1.20
0.78
0.35
0.73
0.27
0.96
1985
1.86
-
1.04
1.51
1.37
0.50
0.90
0.39
1.29
1986
1.97
-
1.00
2.39
1.73
0.84
1.36
1.14
1.70
1987
1.77
-
0.97
2.00
1.82
1.05
1.73
0.67
1.77
1988
1.58
-
0.66
1.61
(1.36)
0.54
0.97
0.55
1.03
1989
1.49
-
0.71
0.41
2.70
0.45
0.78
0.43
0.76
1990
1.35
-
0.70
0.39
2.69
0.80
0.38
0.60
0.49
1991
1.38
-
0.67
0.29
4.96
0.76
0.50
0.90
0.44
1992
2.19
-
0.79
3.06
2.47
0.23
0.98
0.65
1.29
1993
2.33
-
0.85
2.98
3.38
1.00
1.74
1.03
1.87
1994
2.50
-
1.01
2.82
1.44
1.14
1.27
0.86
1.59
1995
1.57
-
0.59
2.73
1.65
1.10
1.00
1.01
1.92
1996
0.74
1.11
0.85
0.99
1.81
1997
0.61
0.57
0.74
1.36
1998
0.37
0.29
0.40
0.83
1999
0.29
0.34
0.39
0.74
2000
0.34
0.37
0.53
0.92
2001
0.46
0.46
0.69
1.21
2002
0.58
0.66
0.57
1.35
2003
0.70
1.22
0.73
1.67
2004
0.48
0.78
0.84
1.67
2005
0.45
0.62
0.81
1.23
2006
0.49
0.54
0.84
0.88
2007
0.71
0.51
0.88
1.16
200 8
0.93
0.79
1.21
2009
1.33
1.16
0.83
2010
1.47
1.18
1.16
2011
1.77
1.69
2.46
4.87 6
2012
2.25
1.44
2.11
6.97 6
201 3
2.30
1.46
2.60
4.96 6
201 4
2.07
1.54
2.38
5.75 6
2015
1.06
1.38
1.93
4.54 6
2016
1.15
1.06
1.39
3.64 6
201 7
1.00
1.0 0
1.0 5
3.01 6
2018
1.0 6
1. 40
1. 31
3.20 6
2019
1 .01
0.89
1.16
3.02 6
2020
0.78
0.68
1.42
3.38 6
2021 1
0.70
0.89
0.86
2.51 6
Table A1. North-East Arctic COD. Catch per unit effort.
1 Preliminary figures.
2 Norwegian data - t per 1,000 tonnage*hrs fishing.
3 United Kingdom data - t per 100 tonnage*hrs fishing.
4 Russian data - t per hr fishing.
5 Spanish data - t per hr fishing.
6 2011-2020 Norwegian data on t per hr fishing are from single-trawl only, not comparable to data from previous years
Period
Sub-area I
Divisions IIa and IIb
1960–1973
RT
RT
1974–1980
PST
RT
1981–
PST
PST
Table A2. North-east Arctic COD. Abundance indices (millions) from the Norwegian acoustic survey in the Barents Sea in January-March. New TS and rock-hopper gear (1981-1988 back-calculated from bobbins gear). Corrected for length-dependent effective spread of trawl. Data from 1994 onwards corrected for three northern areas and the method of filling in gaps (WD 1, WKBarFar 2021).
Vessel type: RT = side trawlers, 800–1000 HP, PST = stern trawlers, up to 2000 HP.
Table A3. North-East Arctic COD. Abundance indices (millions) from the Norwegian bottom trawl survey in the Barents Sea in January-March. Rock-hopper gear (1981-1988 back-calculated from bobbins gear). Corrected for length-dependent effective spread of trawl. Data from 1994 and onwards corrected - WD 1, WKBarFar 2021
Table A4. North East Arctic COD. Abundance at age (millions) from the Norwegian acoustic survey on the spawning grounds off Lofoten in March-April.
Table A5. North East Arctic COD. Length (cm) at-age in the Barents Sea from the investigations winter survey in February. Data for ages 1-11 from 1994 and onwards - WD 1, WKBarFar 2021.
Table A6. North East Arctic COD. Weight (g) at-age in the Barents Sea from the investigations winter survey in February.Data for ages 1-11 from 1994 and onwards - WD 1, WKBarFar 2021.
*revised
Table A7. Northeast Arctic COD. Length at age in cm in the Lofoten survey.
*revised
Table A8. Northeast Arctic COD. Mean weight-at-age (kg) in the Lofoten survey.
*revised
Table A9. Northeast Arctic COD. Results from the Russian trawl-acoustic survey in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters in the autumn. Stock number in millions.
Table A10. Northeast Arctic COD. Abundance indices (millions) from the Russian bottom trawl survey in the Barents Sea.
Table A11. Northeast Arctic COD. Length-at-age (cm) from Russian surveys in November-December.
Table A12. Northeast Arctic COD. Weight (g) at age from Russian surveys in November-December.
Table A13. Northeast Arctic COD. Sum of acoustic abundance estimates (millions) in the Joint winter Barents Sea survey (Table A2) and the Norwegian Lofoten acoustic survey (Table A4).
Table A14. Swept area estimates (millions) of Northeast Arctic Cod from the Joint Norwegian- Russian ecosystem survey in August-September (2020 data are taken from WD 01 AFWG 2021).
Table A15. Mean weight at age of cod (g), data from bottom trawls Barents Sea Ecosystem survey. StoX calculations.
*revised
4 - Haddock in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic)
4.1 - Introductory note
On 30th March 2022 all Russian participation in ICES was suspended. The AFWG report 2022 chapter on haddock was therefore not been updated except tables of total catch (Tables 4.1-4.5.).
In the present report, we have kept the main structure of the NEA haddock chapters in AFWG reports from the last years.
4.2 - Status of the fisheries
4.2.1 - Historical development of the fisheries
Haddock is mainly fished by trawl as bycatch in the fishery for cod. Also, a directed trawl fishery for haddock is conducted. The proportion of the total catches taken by direct fishery varies between years. On average approximately 30% of the catch is with conventional gears, mostly longline, which in the past was used almost exclusively by Norway. Some of the longline catches are from a directed fishery, which is restricted by national quotas. In the Norwegian management, the quotas are set separately for trawl and other gears. The fishery is also regulated by a minimum landing size (40 cm), a minimum mesh size in trawls and Danish seine, a maximum bycatch of undersized fish, closure of areas with high density/catches of juveniles and other seasonal and area restrictions.
The exploitation rate of haddock has been variable. The highest fishing mortalities for haddock have occurred at low to intermediate stock levels and historically show little relationship with the exploitation rate of cod, despite haddock being primarily caught as bycatch in the cod fishery. However, the more restrictive quota regulations introduced around 1990 have resulted in a more stable pattern in the exploitation rate.
The exceptionally strong year classes 2005–2006 contributed to the strong increase to all-time high stock levels and high catch levels in the last decade. Their importance in the catches is currently minimal. Currently, the 2016 year-class is dominating the catches.
The highest landings of haddock historically were 322 kt in 1973. Since 1973 the highest catches observed was 316 kt in 2012. The landings in 2018, 2019 and 2020 were below 200 kt (Figure 4.1).
Provisional official landings for 2021 are about 205 kt, which is 12% below agreed TAC (233 kt).
In 2006 it was decided to include reported Norwegian landings of haddock from the Norwegian statistical areas 06 and 07 (i.e. between 62°N and Lofoten Islands). These areas were not previously included in the total landings of NEA haddock as input for this stock assessment (ICES CM 2006/ACFM:19; ICES CM 2006/ACFM:25).
Estimates of unreported catches (IUU catches) of haddock have been added to reported landings for the years from 2002 to 2008. Two estimates of IUU catches were available, one Norwegian and one Russian. At the benchmark in 2011 it was decided to base the final assessment on the Norwegian IUU estimates (ICES CM 2011/ACOM:38; Table 4.1).
We continue to include the estimates of IUU catches 2002–2008. The IUU catches are assumed to be negligible for the period 2009–2021 and therefore set to zero.
4.2.3 - Catch advice and TAC for 2022
The catch advice for 2022 was 179 kt and the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission set the TAC in accordance with the HCR. Furthermore, Russia and Norway can transfer the unused part of their own quota, restricted to a maximum of 10% of own quotas from 2021 to 2022.
4.3 - Status of research
4.3.1 - Survey results
Russia provided indices for 1982–2015 and 2017 for the Barents Sea trawl and acoustic survey (TAS) which was carried out in October–December (FLT01, RU-BTr-Q4). The survey was discontinued in 2018.
The Joint Barents Sea winter survey provides two index series used for tuning and recruitment forecast (bottom trawl: FLT02, NoRu-BTr-Q1 and acoustics: FLT04, NoRu-Aco-Q1). The survey area has been extended from 2014 with additional northern areas (N) covered. The extended area is now included in total and standard survey index calculations for haddock (WKDEM 2020). Overall, this survey tracks both strong and poor year classes well. The indices from the Joint winter survey of cod and haddock in the Barents Sea are provided in the annual survey reports from this survey (e.g., Fall et al 2022). The spatial survey coverage in 2022 was good. Note that since the AFWG 2021 was conducted, minor errors were discovered in the winter survey indices for 2021 (both acoustic and bottom trawl). The current assessment uses the corrected indices. The report from the 2022 survey (Fall et al in prep) will provide the correct indices back in time.
The Joint Barents Sea ecosystem survey provides indices by age from bottom trawl data (FLT007, Eco-NoRu-Q3 Btr) used for tuning and recruitment forecast. At the benchmark in 2011 it was decided to include this survey as tuning series. Tuning indices by age from the Joint ecosystem survey is calculated using the BIOFOX programme (Prozorkevich and Gjøsæter 2014). The survey coverage of the haddock distribution in 2022 was relatively good.
The survey indices for ages used in tuning can be found in Table 4.9, and the survey indices used in recruitment forecast can be found in Table 4.16.
4.4 - Data used in the assessment
4.4.1 - Catch-at-age (Table 4.4)
Age and length composition of the landings in 2021 were available from Norway and Russia in Subarea 1 and Division 2.b, and from Norway, Russia, and Germany in Division 2.a. The biological sampling of NEA haddock catches is considered good for the most important ages in the fisheries.
Relevant data of estimated catch-at-age was obtained from InterCatch for the period 2008–2020 and is presented together with historical values from 1950–2007 in Table 4.4. For the 2021 catch data allocation, instead of InterCatch, the same algoritm was realized in Excel. Excel was used for comparison with InterCatch in 2008-2002, and no differences between InterCatch and Excel allocations were detected.
4.4.2 - Catch-weight-at-age (Table 4.5)
The mean weight-at-age in the catch was obtained as a weighted average of the weight-at-age in the catch from Norway, Russia and Germany.
4.4.3 - Stock-weight-at-age (Table 4.6)
Since 1983 the stock weights-at-age (Table 4.6) are calculated using the average of the weight-at-age estimate from the Joint Barents Sea winter survey and the Russian bottom trawl survey. These averages are assumed to give representative values for the beginning of the year (see stock annex for details). However, the Russian bottom trawl survey has been discontinued and therefor stock weights-at-age were calculated using a correction factor (WKDEM 2020). Since the benchmark in 2006 stock weight at age has been smoothed (ICES 2006, see stock annex for details).
4.4.4 - Maturity-at-age (Table 4.7)
Since the benchmark 2006, smoothed estimates were produced separately for the Russian autumn survey and the Joint winter survey and then combined using arithmetic average. These averages are assumed to give representative values for the beginning of the year. However, the Russian bottom trawl survey has been discontinued and therefore stock weights-at-age were calculated using a correction factor (see WKDEM 2020 and stock annex).
4.4.5 - Natural mortality (Table 4.8)
Natural mortality used in the assessment was 0.2. For ages 3–6 mortality predation by cod is added (see stock annex). For the period from 1984 and onwards actual estimates of predation by cod was used. For the years 1950–1983 the average natural mortality for 1984–2020 was used (age groups 3–6). Estimated mortality from predation by cod in this year’s assessment is based on the ‘final run’ cod assessment. The proportion of F and M before spawning was set to zero.
4.4.6 - Data for tuning (Table 4.9)
The following survey series are included in the data for tuning, the last age for all surveys is the plus group. Data are lacking (no survey) for FLT01 in 2016, and for FLT007 in 2018 (not included due to poor coverage).
Name
Acronym
Place
Season
Age
Year
prior weight
FLT01: Russian bottom trawl
RU-BTr-Q4
Barents Sea
October–December
3–8+
1991–2017
1
FLT02: Joint Barents Sea survey–acoustic
BS-NoRU-Q1(Aco)
Barents Sea
February– March
3–9+
1993–2022
1
FLT04: Joint Barents Sea survey–bottom trawl
BS-NoRu-Q1 (BTr)
Barents Sea
February– March
3–10+
1994–2022
1
FLT007: Joint Russian-Norwegian ecosystem autumn survey in the Barents Sea–bottom trawl
Eco-NoRu-Q3 (Btr)
Barents Sea
August–September
3–9+
2004–2021
1
4.4.7 - Changes in data from last year (Table 4.6–Table 4.7, Table 4.9)
At the benchmark (WKDEM 2020) it was decided that historic values (1950–1993) of stock weight and maturity should not be updated in the following years. Due to the smoothing procedure (see stock annex) the stock weight and maturity at age back to 1994 are updated every year.
Natural mortality includes cod predation for the ages 3–6. The data from 1984 and onwards are updated every year after the update of the cod assessment. The averages used for the historic period (1950–1983) were updated and used in the assessment.
4.5 - Assessment models and settings (Table 4.10)
At the benchmark in 2020 it was decided to continue using the SAM model as the main model.
The SAM configuration was revised during the benchmark in 2020. The main changes to the configuration were to include:
1) age group 3 in the winter survey indices (Fleet 02 and 04),
2) plus group in all survey series (new option in SAM),
3) prediction variance link for the observation variances (new option in SAM, Breivik et al., 2021) 4) correlation structure in observation variance for the surveys (Berg and Nielsen, 2016).
The configuration, settings and tuning of SAM that were decided on during the benchmark (WKDEM 2020) were used in the current assessment. The configuration file is given in Table 4.10 and in the stock annex.
XSA, with revised settings, will be used as additional model for comparison. This year the TISVPA model is also used as an additional model for comparison.
4.6 - Results of the assessment (Table 4.11–Table 4.14 and Figure 4.1–Figure 4.3)
The dominating feature of the assessment is that the stock reached an all-time high level around 2011 due to the strong 2004–2006 year-classes, and since declined (Table 4.11; Figure 4.1)
Fishing mortality has increased since 2013 (Table 4.12), and the estimate of fishing mortality of main ages (4–7) has been above FMSY = 0.35 since 2018.
The SSB has decreased since the peak in 2013. The estimate for 2022 is 217kt and well above MSY Btrigger = 80 kt (Figure 4.1).
The residuals and retrospective patterns are shown in Figure 4.2 and 4.3.
4.7 - Comparison with last year’s assessment (Figure 4.4)
The text table below compares this year’s estimates with last year’s estimates. Compared to last year the current estimates of the total stock (TSB) in 2021 is 3% higher , whereas the spawning stock (SSB) estimate is almost the same. The Fbar in 2020 is estimated as the same as the Fbar for 2020 estimated last year. Estimates for all ages except ages 7, 8 and 10 were higher or identical to last year’s assessment. Ratios are calculated on original numbers (not rounded as shown in table)
The Extended Survivors Analysis (XSA) was used to tune the VPA by available index series. As last years, FLR was used for the assessment of haddock (see stock annex), and thus all results concerning XSA are obtained using FLR. The settings used were the same as set in the benchmark in 2015 (WKARCT 2015). At this meeting the comparison confirmed that usage XSA with survivor estimate shrinkage 0.5 gave similar result to the estimates from SAM.
The estimated consumption of NEA haddock by NEA cod is incorporated into the XSA analysis by first constructing a catch number-at-age matrix, adding the numbers of haddock eaten by cod to the catches for the years where such data are available (1984–2021). The summary of XSA stock estimates with shrinkage value 0.5 are presented in Table 4.15. A retrospective estimate for XSA gave same signals as for main model SAM (Figure 4.5).
4.8.2 - TISVPA (Figure 4.5)
The TISVPA (Triple Instantaneous Separable VPA) model (Vasilyev, 2005; 2006) represents fishing mortality coefficients (more precisely – exploitation rates) as a product of three parameters: f(year)*s(age)*g(cohort). The generation‐dependent parameters, which are estimated within the model, are intended to adapt traditional separable representation of fishing mortality to situations when several year classes may have peculiarities in their interaction with fishing fleets caused by different spatial distribution, higher attractiveness of more abundant schools to fishers, or by some other reasons. The TISVPA model was presented at benchmark group for arctic stocks (WKARCT) in 2015 and it was decided to apply to NEA haddock using the same data as SAM except that natural mortality values from cannibalism were taken from the SAM runs. All the input data, including catch-at-age, weight-at-age in stock and in catches, maturity-at-age were the same as used in SAM. Generally, the biomass estimates of this model were higher than SAM estimates, which can be explained by different assumptions about catchability of indices. The retrospective pattern for TISVPA shows the same trends as both the SAM and XSA models (Figure 4.5).
4.8.3 - Model comparisons (Figure 4.6)
Results from SAM, XSA and TISVPA are compared in Figure 4.6. Comparison of results of SAM, TISVPA and XSA with previous year settings shows that the models estimate similar trends. The TSVPA model is more flexible for settings than the others and taking into account a possible decrease in survey data consistency, it was attempted to do tuning of surveys not at abundance but to age proportions because the probable change in effective survey catchability.
4.9 - Predictions, reference points and harvest control rules (Table 4.16–Table 4.21)
4.9.1 - Recruitment (Table 4.16–Table 4.17)
SAM was used to estimate the recruitment at age 3 of the 2019 year-class in 2022. The RCT3 program translation in R was used to estimate the recruiting year classes 2020–2021 in 2023 and 2024 with survey data from the ecosystem survey and winter survey (acoustics and bottom trawl). Input data and results are shown in Tables 4.16 and 4.17, respectively.
The text table below shows the recruitment estimates for the year classes 2004–2021 from assessments and RCT3 forecasts (shaded cells). Overall, there is good agreement with the year-class strength estimates from RCT3 and the assessments (r=0.96), and the estimate the first year the year-class was assessed was on average 84% of the initial RCT3 estimate (year-classes 2005-2019. In the most recent years, it is noticeable that the 2018 year-class was less than 50% of the initial RCT3 estimate.
Year Class
Year of assessment, base model
2008 XSA
2009 XSA
2010 XSA
2011 XSA
2012 XSA
2013 XSA
2014 XSA
2015 XSA
2015 SAM
2016 SAM
2017 SAM
2018 SAM
2019 SAM
2020 SAM
2021 SAM
2022 SAM
2004
665
668
610
765
743
725
698
768
687
930
898
869
879
557
543
546
2005
943
975
1029
1193
1301
1317
1303
1415
996
1456
1330
1241
1251
1149
1113
1118
2006
832
1036
811
1057
1187
1264
1267
1366
827
1254
1083
1027
1030
1063
1025
1032
2007
202
208
212
284
330
370
384
411
211
355
307
305
308
249
241
242
2008
149
101
120
151
155
169
178
89
157
107
109
110
122
117
119
2009
303
315
320
345
357
363
230
351
294
291
293
356
340
344
2010
188
146
137
146
150
100
133
105
105
106
124
119
120
2011
483
513
482
398
298
397
340
329
332
425
411
415
2012
124
145
104
78
73
79
70
68
75
72
73
2013
394
290
197
235
184
174
177
219
213
215
2014
279
198
247
189
146
148
202
194
198
2015
422
398
333
336
384
368
370
2016
1067
933
930
875
822
831
2017
577
629
497
442
449
2018
344
294
154
164
2019
39
31
38
2020
95
89
2021
303
4.9.2 - Prediction data (Table 4.18, Figure 4.7)
The input data for the prediction are presented in Table 4.18.
Stock numbers for 2022–2023 at age 3 are taken from RCT3, and abundance-at-ages 3–13+ in 2021 from the SAM assessment. The average fishing pattern observed in 2019–2021 scaled to F in 2021 was used for distribution of fishing mortality-at-age for 2022–2024 (Figure 4.7). The proportion of M and F before spawning was set to 0.
Input data to projection of weight at age in the stock, weight at age in the catch, maturity and mortality followed the stock annex.
4.9.3 - Biomass reference points (Figure 4.1)
Biological and fisheries reference points for NEA haddock were last set following a thorough analysis as part of the WKNEAMP-2 (ICES, 2016) Harvest Control Rule evaluation in 2016. The revised model developed during the 2020 benchmark produced better fits to the data but only a small change in the reconstructed stock (WKDEM 2020). A brief analysis at WKDEM 2020 indicated that the reference points from the current model are very similar to the previously estimated values. Given the more thorough analysis at WKNEAMP-2 (ICES, 2016), this is taken as indicating that there was no evidence to deviate from the reference points set in 2016.
At the last benchmark (WKDEM 2020) it was proposed to keep Blim = 50 000 t and Bpa = 80 000 t with the rationale that Blim is equal to Bloss, and Bpa = Blim*exp (1.645*σ), where σ = 0.3. This gives a 95% probability of maintaining SSB above Blim taking into account the uncertainty in the assessments and stock dynamics. BMSY trigger was proposed equal Bpa, Btrigger was then selected as a biomass that is encountered with low probability if FMSY is implemented, as recommended by WKFRAME2 (ICES CM 2011/ACOM:33). Values of reference points compared with current stock values are reflected in Figure 4.1.
Biological and fisheries reference points for NEA haddock were last set following a thorough analysis as part of the WKNEAMP-2 (ICES, 2016) Harvest Control Rule evaluation in 2016. The revised model developed during the 2020 benchmark produced better fits to the data but only a small change in the reconstructed stock (WKDEM 2020). A brief analysis at WKDEM 2020 indicated that the reference points from the current model are very similar to the previously estimated values. Given the more thorough analysis at WKNEAMP-2 (ICES, 2016), this is taken as indicating that there was no evidence to deviate from the reference points set in 2016.
There is no standard method of estimating Flim nor Fpa, and ACOM accepted to use geometric mean recruitment (146 million) and Blim as basis for the Flim estimate. Flim is then based on the slope of line from origin at SSB = 0 to the geometric mean recruitment (146 million) and SSB = Blim. The SPR value of this slope give Flim value on SPR curve; Flim = 0.77 (found using Pasoft). Using the same approach as for Bpa; Fpa = Flim*exp(-1.645*σ) = 0.47.
FMSY = 0.35 has been estimated by long-term stochastic simulations. Values of reference points compared with current stock values are reflected in Figure 4.1.
The estimates of cod’s consumption of haddock were revised following the cod benchmark in early 2021. At the AFWG 2021 meeting, the haddock FMSY was checked with the new updated mortality estimates and found to still be valid and precautionary.
4.9.5 - Harvest control rule
The harvest control rule (HCR) was evaluated by ICES in 2007 (ICES CM 2007/ACFM:16) and found to be in agreement with the precautionary approach. The agreed HCR for haddock with last modifications is as follows (Protocol of the 40th Session of The Joint Norwegian Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC), 14 October 2011):
TAC for the next year will be set at level corresponding to FMSY.
The TAC should not be changed by more than +/- 25% compared with the previous year TAC.
If the spawning stock falls below Bpa, the procedure for establishing TAC should be based on a fishing mortality that is linearly reduced from FMSY at Bpa to F = 0 at SSB equal to zero. At SSB-levels below Bpa in any of the operational years (current year and a year ahead) there should be no limitations on the year-to-year variations in TAC.
As mentioned above Flim and Fpa were revised in 2011. The new values of Flim = 0.77 and Fpa = 0.47 are higher than the previous values (0.49 and 0.35, respectively). In the 2012 meeting of the JNRFC the proposals of ICES were accepted, and the current HCR management is based on FMSY instead of Fpa. This corresponds to the goal of the management strategy for this stock and should provide maximum sustainable yield.
In 2014, JNRFC decided that from 2015 onwards, Norway and Russia can transfer to next year or borrow from last year maximum 10% of the country’s quota. At its 45th session in October 2015, the Joint Norwegian-Russian Fisheries Commission (JNRFC) decided that a number of alternative harvest control rules (HCRs) for Northeast Arctic haddock should be evaluated by ICES. This was done by WKNEAMP (ICES 2015b/ACOM:60, ICES C. M. 2016/ACOM:47). Six HCRs for NEA haddock including the existing one were tested. At its 46th session in October 2016, the JNRFC decided not to change the HCR.
4.9.6 - Prediction results and catch options for 2021 (Table 4.19–Table 4.21)
The projection shows a slight increase in SSB from 216 kt in 2022 to 232 kt in 2023 (Table 4.19). TAC constraint F is used for 2022. The TAC for 2023 is established using the current one-year HCR, in accordance to the management plan. FMSY = 0.35 would give a quota for 2023 of 170 kt, this is a 5% decrease from the TAC and advice for 2022.
Catch options for 2023 are shown in the text table below (weights in tonnes).
Basis
Total catch (2023)
F ages 4−7 (2023)
SSB (2024)
% SSB change *
% TAC change **
% Advice change ***
Advice basis
Management plan
170 067
0
205 549
-11
-5
-5
Other scenarios
MSY approach: FMSY
170 067
0.35
205 549
-11
-5
-5
F = 0
0
0.00
321 974
39
-100
-100
F = F2022
151 269
0.30
218 188
-6
-15
-15
Fpa
213 495
0.47
176 638
-24
20
20
Flim
298 284
0.77
121 687
-48
67
67
* SSB 2024 relative to SSB 2023.
** Catch in 2023 relative to TAC in 2022 (178532 t)
*** Catch value for 2023 relative to advice value for 2022 (178532 t)
Detailed information about expected catches by following HCR in 2023 and 2024 is given in Table 4.20. The forecast covers all catches. It is then implied that all types of catches are to be counted against this TAC.
4.9.7 - Comments to the assessment and predictions (Figure 4.2–Figure 4.4)
Haddock was benchmarked in 2020 (WKDEM 2020). The motivation for the benchmark was the poor retrospective (text table below). The retrospective biases were greatly improved after the benchmark. The retrospective biases from this year’s assessment for SSB, TSB and F were reduced compared to AFWG 2021.
Retrospective bias (Mohn’s Rho), 5-year peel
R
SSB
F
TSB
AFWG 2018
−3%
24%
−7%
14%
AFWG 2019
−5%
18%
−7%
7%
WKDEM 2020
−2%
3%
−3%
1%
AFWG 2020
−4%
−3%
0%
−5%
AFWG 2021
1%
6%
−7%
3%
AFWG 2022
-2%
5%
-6%
1%
A jitter analysis performed to verify that the SAM model is not sensitive to starting values ,, revealed no problems (see Breivik et al 2021 for details on jitter analysis). The one step ahead residuals showed no clear pattern (Figure 4.2). The retrospective The retrospective biases for F, SSB, RSB and R (absolute values) are <7% (Figure 4.3). Overall, adding a year of data confirmed the trend from last year’s assessment. To conclude, no obvious problems with the 2022 assessment were detected.
According to this year’s assessment, the 2016 year-class is the sixth strongest year class in the time-series back to 1950. The 2017 year-class is close to average, whereas the 2018 year-class is weak, and the 2019 year-class is the weakest since the 1987 year-class. The 2020 year-class is predicted to be well below average, whereas the 2021 year-class is predicted to be above average.
The strong 2016 year-class is now dominating the spawning stock and catches (48% of the catches in biomass in 2021) and will continue to do so for the coming years. The stock is declining and expected to continue to decline in the next years, since the incoming year-classes are weak.
Fbar(4-7) has been above Fmsy from 2018 and onwards, meaning that the quotas for 2018-2021 have been set too high. The assessments from 2017 to 2019 on which the TAC advice for 2018-2020 were based, had large positive retrospective biases for TSB and SSB (see text table above), implying that the stock sizes were overestimated. The retrospective bias was reduced after the revision at the 2020 benchmark (WKDEM 2020).
Only 88% of 2021 TAC was taken. One possible reason is that the advice and quota was set too high, due to lower catch weights of ages 3-7 compared to the forecast, e.g. the catch weight at age 5 (2016 year-class) was 16% lower than predicted by AFWG in 2020. The 2016 year-class accounted for more than half of the individuals caught in 2021 ( 54%) and thus the weight of this year-class in the catches had the greatest impact on the yield. As a result, a given catch in tons required more individuals had to be caught, and hence a higher effort from the fishing fleet. The discrepancy between forecast and catch statistics can be explained by a larger proportion of the catches being taken in ICES Area I in 2021 compared to earlier years (Table 4.2). This eastern area is colder compared to the western Barents Sea and here size at age tends to be smaller.
As most of the 2016 year-class will be spawning in 2022 and 2023, moving into warmer waters in western Barents Sea, we expect the fishing fleet to follow, and that the catch weight at age in the forecast and in the catch statistics will be more similar in the coming years.
4.10 - References
ICES 2020. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG). ICES Scientific Reports. 2:52. 577 pp.
Berg CW and NielsenA. 2016. Accounting for correlated observations in an age-based state-space stock assessment model. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 73: 1788–1797.
Breivik ON, Nielsen A and CW Berg (2021). Prediction–variance relation in a state-space fish stock assessment model. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 78, 3650–3657
Fall et al 2022. Fish investigations in the Barents Sea winter 2021. IMR-PINRO Joint Report Series 1 2022, 100 pp.
ICES 2006a. ICES Workshop on Biological Reference Points for North East Arctic Haddock (WKHAD). Svanhovd, Norway, 6-10 March 2006. ICES C.M. 2006/ACFM:19, 102 pp.
ICES 2006b. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group, 19-28 April. 2006. ICES C.M. 2006/ACFM:25, 594 pp.
ICES 2011. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Roundfish and Pelagic Stocks, Lisbon 24-31 January 2011. ICES C.M. 2011/ACOM:38, 418 pp.
ICES 2015a. Report of the first Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin ( WKNEAMP-1) , , . ICES CM 2015/ACOM:60, 27 pp.
ICES. 2015b. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Arctic Stocks (WKARCT), 26-30 January 2015, ICES Headquarters, Denmark. ICES CM 2015\ACOM:31. 126 pp.
ICES 2016. Report of the second Workshop on Management Plan Evaluation on Northeast Arctic cod and haddock and Barents Sea capelin (WKNEAMP-2) , 25-28 January 2016, Kirkenes, Norway. ICES CM 2016/ACOM:47, 76 pp.
Prozorkevich D and Gjøsæter H 2014. WD_02 cod BESS_assessment. AFWG 2014.
Vasilyev D. 2005 Key aspects of robust fish stock assessment. M: VNIRO Publishing, 2005. 105 p.
Vasilyev D. 2006. Change in catchability caused by year class peculiarities: how stockassessment based on separable cohort models is able to take it into account? (Some illustrations for triple‐separable case of the ISVPA model ‐ TISVPA). ICES CM 2006/O:18. 35 pp
Table 4.1. Northeast Arctic haddock. Total nominal catch (t) by fishing areas.
1) Provisional figures
2) Figures based on Norwegian/Russian IUU estimates. From 2009, IUU estimates are made by a Joint Russian-Norwegian analysis group under the Russian-Norwegian Fisheries Commission.
3) In 2002–2008, the Norwegian IUU estimates were used in final assessment.
4) Included in total landings and in landings in region 2.a.